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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6268)	7/12/1998 10:51:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

Zeev, your memory served you well. Btb bottomed at 0.7 in '96. The years '96, '97, '98 and the monthly average '91-'97 are plotted here... geocities.com Also, Silicon Valley leaders ponder: "Six months of twists and turns in Silicon Valley" posted at 9:37 p.m. PDT Saturday, July 11, 1998 mercurycenter.com from today's San Jose Mercury News. Jim Morgan is among them. GM Semi equipment btb: 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 JAN 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.17 1.32 1.28 1.11 0.94 FEB 1.12 1.20 1.15 1.13 1.41 1.36 1.07 0.9 MAR 0.91 1.13 1.12 1.07 1.30 1.15 1.15 0.82 APR 0.92 1.02 1.18 1.05 1.23 1.00 1.10 0.77 MAY 0.93 0.93 1.20 1.02 1.11 0.87 1.09 0.8 JUN 0.96 0.90 1.22 1.16 1.18 0.87 1.07 JUL 0.93 0.92 1.19 1.20 1.08 0.76 1.12 AUG 0.92 0.94 1.14 1.21 1.05 0.71 1.07 SEP 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.02 0.70 1.05 OCT 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.12 1.07 0.78 1.02 NOV 0.96 1.03 1.05 1.19 1.06 0.90 1.00 DEC 0.98 1.08 1.19 1.29 1.15 1.02 0.99

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6268)	7/13/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

To say a BTB of 70% is "bullish" seems to me to be straining a little. It certainly signals a decrease in share price, but we already know about that! At this point, I'm willing to bet a buck that the BTB might actually get below .70. Things are TERRIBLE right now, with Intel's mothballing equipment and refusing to carry spare parts in its inventory. Obviously a BTB, being a second derivative, cannot stay under .80 for long without bankruptcies occurring. But I think we're going to see a really nasty softness in the next month or two, at least. In other words, a BTB of .70 has almost got to be a "low" point, but a gradual rise to .80 or .90 isn't a recovery signal (not counting the monthly averaging -- clearly a one-month rise from .7 to .9 means implies current order exceeding sales, that is, shows a monthly btb well over 1.0), but rather, a signal of continued losses. Evey month at .80 means the industry needs a month at 1.25 just to get back to even. In other news, I hear well-sourced rumors that Lam is going to have additional layoffs. And last but not least -- hurrah for the Japanese voters! I think they got the attention of the Japanese government yesterday!