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To: Paul Engel who wrote (59828)	7/12/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: Francis Chow	Respond to of 186894

Political turmoil will perpetuate Japan's economic recession which will reduce expenditures which will reduce Intel's revenue from Japan. Even without political turmoil, it appears the Japanese government wants the yen to devalue - they're afraid of China and the rest of Asia undercutting them, now that manufacturing quality in China and the rest of Asia has substantially caught up. Trouble is if the yen devalues too much, China will devalue it's currency, which will spark another round of currency devaluations across Asia (which lead to bank collapse etc.). Asia, when China and Japan are included and before the current slowdown, had actually just broken the 50% level; that is slightly more than have the world's gross product came from Asia. It is naive to think that half of the world's economy can tank without the effects propagating to the other half - although that is how many in North America and Europe are taking it. When the Great Depression happened, it took over a year to spread to Europe, but its spread there was inevitable, because the US, at that time, represented about 50% of the world's gross product.

To: Paul Engel who wrote (59828)	7/13/1998 1:31:00 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul, RE:" Political turmoil will perpetuate Japan's economic recession which will reduce expenditures which will reduce Intel's revenue from Japan. " Between the Japanese elections, AMAT and Intels plant closings...tomorrow could start out ugly. Jim