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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Solid who wrote (4274)	7/12/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: hal abrahams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

off the topic does anyone know what happened to OPTIONS JERRY? haven't heard from him in months.

To: Solid who wrote (4274)	7/13/1998 1:09:00 AM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: 7/12/98 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 PS Solid: Thanks for the feedback and the 48hours.com link. __________________________________________________________ Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: After reaching a Peabody Valley last Monday (105.63), PFE is headed to a new Peabody Peak of 125.59 by July 25, 1998. Commentary Responding to negative Viagra media articles, PFE dropped 8.1% off its last Peabody Peak (114.94). PFE declined exactly 1/8th of a point below the Peabody Valley strike price (125.75) as noted in last week's Peabody Report : 7/05/98: "However, if PFE falls to 105.75, it would establish a new Peabody Valley and confirm the 6/18/98 Peabody Peak of 114.94." Friday's high of 118.125 represents the pending Peabody Peak. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (7/10/98)......From Today Last Peabody Valley: .... 7/06/98 ....105.63.......... -10.3% ...................-7 Last Peabody Peak:..... 7/10/98......118.13..........+0.3% ...................-3 Pending Forecasted Next Peak ......7/25/98....126.59..........+7.5%.................. 13 Forecasted Next Valley....................... 107.00 (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (7/05/98): PFE: 107.50; DJ: 9,025: PFE is stuck in the winds of Viagra media attention. In the short-term, expect volatility depending on the news accounts on a given day. Over time, calm will be restored and the media will concentrate on their next hot story. Since PFE 2nd quarter earnings and Viagra sales report are only 9 days away, this week should be exciting for PFE. Monday's Viagra Rxs may ignite an explosion in either direction providing either PFEr smiles or a great buy opportunity (more smiles for long-termers). If there is any dip, expect an addition to the Peabody Portfolio. When PFE breaks resistance @ 115, the move to 120 will be very quick. Gut feel: PFE will dip early in the week before rallying above 111. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: One of Mr. P's best calls ever. Anyone who followed this pforecast made 10% in a week...Two thumbs up!!! Peabody PForecast Record (69 weeks): 45-24 (65%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (7/12/98): PFE: 117.81, DJ: 9,106: PFE excitement will be balanced by profit-taking near all-time highs and possible disappointing Viagra Rxs effected by the July 4th holiday. Accordingly, expect PFE will move with the Big Pharma sector and the general market. In particular, MRK's earnings report this week will drive PFE and may provide a boost. Da Gut-feel: An up and down week with a battle near 120 and PFE ending flat for the week. ___________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio Houston, we have a double! Total return:........................................+100.3% PFE @ 117.81 Annualized return:...............................+95.2% % of Peabody purchases in the black... 100% Since April 1, 1998, 1998, the Peabody Portfolio has added 900 PFE shares to the mythical Peabody Portfolio. (Average price 105.30) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 19 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,500 PFE shares at an average price of $58.81 (only 3.2% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 3,500 Average Price of Purchases:....... $58.81 Total Costs: ...............................$205,838 Total Market Value:.....................$412,335 Total Potential Profit:...................$206,498 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 Total:............3,500...........$58.81 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: Aggressive PFE buying levels:..................$103 to $108 Conservative PFE buying levels: ...............$98 to $102 ________________________________________ Future Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: ...................................Throughout 1998 PFE Analysts' Meeting..................................July 25, 1998 FDA re-review of Zeldox: .............................. Summer,1998 Launch of Zeldox:.........................................1999 (?) International approval of Viagra:.................September- December, 1998 PFE R&D Meeting.....................................October 29, 1998 ED news in the media: .............................Throughout 1998 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Viagra sales for the second quarter, 1998 were $411 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first three months on the market. ____________ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE has announced a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, management stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, the next PFE split will be 3-1 in the Fall, 1998 or March, 1999.