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Technology Stocks : Speedfam [SFAM] Lovers Unite ! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MULIFAT who wrote (3110)	7/12/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3736

Mulifat: <I consider you to be very bright, and considerably more knowledgeable than myself regarding SFAM.> Don't underestimate yourself or overestimate me. Knowledge is something one accumulates...and if anything, I've been trying to accumulate it for a longer period of time at best. <<However, are you serious about SFAM expecting $52 a share for a buyout? I do not see SFAM getting much above 20 for at least 6 months or beyond. Do you honestly feel someone would pay almost 3 times the current stock price in a premium? I would think that $25-$30 a share, it SFAM was bought within 6 months, would be a best case scenario. What am I missing here?> You are missing nothing. Maybe I wasn't clear in my original posting. SFAM management could logically take the position that it would be an unwise move to sell for less than the past PO price - sort of looks fishy, with the way the group and SFAM in particular tanked afterwards. Now, having said that, what did KLAC pay for when buying out TNCR? I think it was a reasonable multiple of the stock price. Can one equate that deal with one that may entail SFAM? No one knows, but it wouldn't surprise me if SFAM's management were to take the above position - that they'll get back to 52 sometime over the next twelve to eighteen months, thank anyway. Does it mean that SFAM is worth $52/sh? Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. I think SFAM is worth it, but I am a very long in the tooth shareholder....and do believe better days are on their way....just unclear as to when. So, having rambled on about this enough, do I think SFAM's management would take an offer for $30/sh? Nope. Remember, regardless of the AMAT BS being published on this thread and elsewhere, AMAT hasn't gobbled up SFAM's CMP marketshare...and the marketshare they have gotten has come at a price (giving machines away for free or dirt cheap as a package deal which they can do b/c of the SEC's materiality standard without Wall Street knowing - also see Friday's pre-announcement from AMAT as a guide to where he sector is ... period). So, what does this all mean? CMP is too valuable long term (even short to intermediate if you believe in a turn around come early '99) to pay $30/sh. Maybe that's what you pay for somehting that isn't supposed to grow at the rate CMP is once things get back on track. Well, enough of my rambling. Just one man's spin.....SemiBull