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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mike head who wrote (6658)	7/13/1998 3:43:00 AM
From: Tharos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

It all really depends upon who he is replaced with, and more importantly which party gains control. This is the first election where my wife did not vote. It surprised me, and when I asked her why, she basically said the elections were uninteresting and nothing was going to change. I have not yet had a chance to see how the parties did. We are past the time when merely talking of changes will mean anything. Bottom line, I think if PM Hashimoto resigns, not a lot will become of it unless the replacement delivers sweeping change and reform proposals. None of the candidates I had the opportunity of listening to on TV seemed of that caliber. The major contenders that were vying for the disgruntled voter seemed only to be aware of problems but unsure how to solve them. Typical political speak. Some things to consider: The Ministries, as beat up as they have been recently, still basically run the country--things that happen in the Diet are often meaningless. People are not happy with the tax situation, nor the fact that it was forced upon them by the US (in the heyday of the Japanese economy, the US came over here and brow beat the Japanese for practicing fiscal responsibility instead of runaway deficit spending). When 79 Yen bought a $ a lot of manufacturing processes were redesigned, and many moved off-shore. With the dollar now bringing 130ish Yen, these products will become even more competitive. The $'s strength should ultimately enable marginal businesses to become competitive and that will eventually help with the land valuation and unemployment problems. The re-entrance of a competitive Japan may be the biggest impact on world economies. Although one would have to wonder how much impact this would really be. Americans are often mislead because only the durable goods surplus figures are used. The total surplus figures are much, much lower. Banks are teetering, but I find it hard to believe the government will let the big ones collapse. Couple that with the whopping 0.0075% (that's right, three-quarters of one-percent) that my passbook savings account earns. Banks have access to cheep money. A lot of money does sit in these accounts because this is a cash economy. There is really no way to conduct business without a bank account, so people are not likely to make runs on the large banks. The Nikkei was fueled by securities salesmen going out and selling women on the idea of buying securities. Women control the household finances here, in fact there is a little ceremony to present your wife with your monthly pay-check. Not practiced so much anymore because of electronic funds transfer. Anyway, a lot of them lost a lot of money (and face) when the Nikkei fell. They are not likely to repeat the mistake. So the question has to be asked: Where will the money to boost the Nikkei to new heights come from? Answer will probably be from overseas, so it may be more important to the Nikkei how foreigners view the election results. All IMO.

To: mike head who wrote (6658)	7/13/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Tharos	Respond to of 17367

This is what appears to be shaping up: - Hashimoto has resigned, there is no heir apparent. Senior LDP leadership was previously decimated in several different scandals, hence Hashimoto's promotion to Prime Minister. - The upper house controls who is Prime Minister, and the LDP still controls the upper house. - The LDP must be concerned with the loss of lower house seats, but we have a lot of old school people in the LDP, they have, so far, been unable to break out of their paradigm. - It is not apparent how the lower house coalition will form, but from looking at the numbers, it will include the LDP, consequently they will wield some influence in the lower house, and even though they do not control the majority of seats, they have the most seats of any of the parties and nearly twice a many as #2. Affect on world economies: none. Now for the Yen. I have for a long time used my own index, I call it the CD Index, to gauge the value of the Yen relative to the Dollar. Because the Japanese and Americans enjoy roughly the same standard of living and have roughly the same type of electronic entertainment desires, I judge the relative retail price of a music CD. If the Yen price converts to roughly the same value, then there is parity. If the value does not, then the currency markets tend to (over time) move the valuations back in line. The U.S.'s attempt to artificially peg the Yen at 105 JY/$1 US to help bail itself out of a recession was clearly not based on any kind of reality. Currently a new title by a popular artist commands 2500 - 2800 yen. Go to a mall, get a retail price for a similar product, and divide. Simple enough. Suggests the Yen should be trading around the 150's. All IMO.