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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (21662)	7/12/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, I misinterpreted the context of "capitulation" in your earlier post. I doubt that AMAT's capitulation will immediately lead to capitulation on the part of investors. I suspect that some bleeding over a period of weeks or months may be necessary for that to occur. But the forward looking bookings of $600M+ for the quarter is less than 1/2 what we had near the end of last year. To expect that AMAT is going to stay within 10%-15% of Friday's close, as most on this thread are estimating, seems overly optimistic. As said, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see the stock trade higher on Monday. Within 2 - 4 weeks, I would expect AMAT to move more than 15% lower. So my bet is that a price well under $25 will be available by Aug 11th report date; and that the forward looking statement in that conference call is not likely to cause any glee for shareholders. FWIW, Ian.