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Technology Stocks : Motorola (MOT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Captain Jack who wrote (1293)	7/12/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: Noblesse Oblige	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3436

Hi Jack... I am neither long nor short MOT, so I have no horse in the race. From what I can gather, most analysts expected something a little more substantive than the restructuring announcement made last week. At the moment, it appears to me that the company's stock is being held up by the "promise" that the new efforts in digital cell phones may bring some fruit. It appears that the next day of importance to MOT shareholders will be July 21st, when they are expected to make some significant announcements in the cell phone area. I have no idea what those will include, but it shouldn't be lost on anyone that if they are "Ho-hummers," that this stock will take it on the chin. My own belief is that management has been cognizant of the situation for some time, and it is clear that there have been a couple of "starts" and "stops" on the development of the new phones. As I write this, there is no manufacturing activity in Illinois, but the facility is waiting final orders for production. A hint of MOT's intentions and the timing of its production may come early this week, as TFS (Three-Five Systems), a MOT supplier of display components, is scheduled to have its conference call on earnings. You will please note that approximately one month ago, TFS "pre-announced" for the second quarter, saying that it wouldn't reach analyst's estimates because of a delay in some Motorola programs. Nevertheless, the company also stated that its revenues would be up "at least 25%" for the year, a very strong indication that its second half would literally explode the top line. (MOT is likely to be 50% of TFS's business in 1998.) TFS conference call information will be available tomorrow, Monday. I am intending to post the data on the TFS "thread," so interested MOT longs and shorts can dial in to hear whatever is discussed there on the telecommunications giant. Perhaps some insight may also be gained on another U.S. firm that would benefit handsomely in the event MOT's business plan moves in the right direction. This might be particularly useful for those MOT investors that would prefer exposure to the cell phone area but would prefer not to have to analyze semiconductors and the balance of the corporate umbrella. (For what it is worth, TFS is the largest independent LCD manufacturer in the western hemisphere, but is only capitalized at about $135 million; that represents approximately 18 and 13 times estimated 1998 and 1999 earnings, respectively, as well as only about 1.2 times the expected 1998 revenue rate. Compared to current overall market evaluations, it appears to me to be intrinsically "cheap.") Have a good evening.