Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (21668)	7/12/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks, a few friendly comments... 1. Panic among investors who bet/invested at $28-$32 who are afraid that they will have significant mid/long term paper losses if the stock drops another 10-25% from Fridays after hours close of around $27. They may not panic because they see the stock triple in 2-3 years. Short term investors, being nimble, will probably sell though. 2. Fund managers who want out as there is little/no upside price potential or industry growth for 6-12 months. True, but didn't they see that weeks ago? 3. The Japanese yen is falling further, It was widely suspected weeks ago the yen would drop again. 4. Russia is on the verge of economic collapse, AMAT doesn't sell a lot to Russia - although this will have a psychological effect. It amazes me that the problems of such a large country have not spooked the market so far. when will we feel the shock wave?? My bet? Oct. Please give your reasoning for this expectation. Gottfried

To: Big Bucks who wrote (21668)	7/13/1998 12:03:00 AM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 70976

Bucks, for most of the reasons you sighted, the US Equity market will become the "safe haven"...Russian, Japanese, Hong Kong, and Asian money will continue to flow to the US markets...Some into the Treasury market pushing the 30 yr Long Bond a bit lower or at worst, steady she goes....The rest into equities... For this reasons, I see no crash at all!! Weakness in certain sectors? ABSOLUTELY!! But an overall market meltdown? NO WAY, IMHO... Lastly, what should we use to define a correction anyway? 300 pts off the DOW? NAH, not enough...500 pts? still not enough, IMO.. When we get to 1,000 pts of the current DOW, then we have seen a correction! Remember, 1,000 pts is only approx. 10% correction....A correction similar to October '87 would be 2,000 DOW pts tomm.!! NO WAY IMHO Regards, MileHigh