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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (3340)	7/13/1998 9:16:00 AM
From: John Curtis	Respond to of 27311

Paul: Well said. And indeed, when it comes to trying to determine earnings, production rates, etc., it IS a shot from the hip as there's absolutely no way of knowing UNTIL the line's are conclusively "spitting" product out in a completely mechanized fashion. However, since ULBI is using a similar line configuration, your comparison using their public data is a legitimate comparison, eh? But even with that, experience in ramping up a manufacturing line is key to being able to "swag" an estimate, so your's(and Fred's, based on his work background) have credibility. Bottom line though? Me thinks we be getting the cart before the horse. I'm willing to entertain number of "widgets" produced ONCE financing is secured! Right now THAT is key to all future developments, so having accumulated allll the shares I'm comfortable with(for the time being), it's now time to watch for it being announced, eh? After that......well........"GIMMMEEEE!" ;-) Regards! John~

To: kolo55 who wrote (3340)	7/13/1998 9:38:00 AM
From: david m. uhler	Respond to of 27311

Dear Paul Excellent post! I have been a lurker around these parts for a long time. My interest in this stock is as a consumer. I am really sick of the companies that are more interested in pink bunnies than giving the consumer what they want. Wishful thinking that VLNC will deliver the goods? The jury is out. Back to my lurking mode (;-) Dave U

To: kolo55 who wrote (3340)	7/13/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: MGV	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27311

A few comments to you Paul. First, this kind of an exchange of ideas and information is the best harness I've seen here for what the internet can add to stock evaluation. 1. You explained the basis for your estimate of 80-90% probability of mass production by September is personal experience in start up manufacturing processes together with comments from Dawson. Anecdotal evidence can be instructive and useful but in this case there are two issues that mitigate greater reliance on anecdotal testimony. First, the balance sheet as it concerns cash flow and working capital. Assuming your instinct is right about mass production in September, it simply doesn't follow that the CFO and CEO would allow short term liabilities to exceed liquid assets unless they had no choice. But the implications of having no choice are wholly inconsistent with high probability of mass production in September. Especially if one considers your opinion w/r/t supposed line capacity and productivity. Second, because Dawson and the company have made comments before and (giving them the benefit of the doubt for sake of argument) been wrong, one of the pillars for your probability estimate - Dawson's comments - must be considered suspect. That by the way, must be a big reason - along with liquidity problems - why the stock price is as low as it is. The street considers the pillar suspect as well, as noted by Dawson himself. The point is that there is good reason for it. 2. You admitted that your capacity estimates stem in part from other internet posts and in part from extrapolating information concerning ULBI. Fair enough. For a speculative company with VLNC's history in a highly competitive industry, the derivation of capacity numbers is too fragile for me to accept for the reasons I've stated in prior posts. It is a point on which reasonable people can differ. 3. Your estimates are based on laptop battery prices. What is the current wholesale price in the laptop battery market. Are you using the wholesale price or retail price? 4. Regarding stock research on a company in R&D and no earnings, the investigative research you describe is valuable. My observation in this case thoguh Paul is that it seems its caused a tendency to get mired in detail and gloss over some more obvious and fundamenatl issues. All of the steps you cite have to contribute to a more complete picture. That is indisputable. The problem is the financing issue, specifically what I allude to above in point 1, seems to have been lost in your analysis. Cheers, Mark