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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Luigi Gandolfo who wrote (3017)	7/13/1998 9:45:00 AM
From: Sawtooth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

My take: Even if LU corrects 30% (to grab a number out of the air) which would take it down to $60, many investors will still have significant gains after that pullback. I suspect many investors in LU would still be ahead with even a 50% plunge. From another aspect, LU's future is almost purely ahead of it; the same cannot be said about most companies. So, unless one is trying to time a pullback and subsequent repurchase, the most probable profitable move is to stay in the stock unless there is a change in the fundamentals of that particular stock. JMO. Good luck!

To: Luigi Gandolfo who wrote (3017)	7/13/1998 10:07:00 AM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

<How will tech stocks behave when the market crashes later this year? And how will this affect Lucent.> I think first of all you make a lot of presuppositions about a "crash" later this year. I'm a firm believer in the cyclicality of the market, particularly tech, for a variety of reasons. I don't necessarily prescribe to your theory about Asian funds flowing from U.S. equity either. I think this market is driven more by mutual fund inflows. During the last tech "correction" Lucent held a trading range around 70-74 while a lot of other tech companies got squashed. So I have every reason to believe that in a future "correction" situation Lucent will hold up well. It is my theory that in information technology the current bottleneck is bandwidth, not processing power or hardware. Large suppliers of public utility scale bandwidth should be hugely prosperous, (read Cisco, Lucent). So irregardless of wiggles in the market, a long term hold in Lucent should end up on the plus side of the ledger.

To: Luigi Gandolfo who wrote (3017)	7/13/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: Mir	Respond to of 21876

If Asia goes positive as will LU With recent investments in Japan and entry into the China market LU is well positioned to take advantage of any positive tendencies. My guess would be LU going up and splitting and then stabilizing to weather the out-flows of money back to the Asian markets, after which (a year down the road) it should go into the 'Rational Exuberance' mode. The price movement for LU is steadily upwards with dips or jumps on specific news (including buyouts, mergers, takeovers, wins, losses etc.). In general how the markets behave in future will be dependent on the inflationary pressures created by positive Asian effect as keeping the interest rates low would be a difficult task for the Fed.'Irrational Exuberance' is how the markets have been behaving recently and that may very well be due to Asian money looking for safe haven (as you pointed out). Mir

To: Luigi Gandolfo who wrote (3017)	7/13/1998 11:17:00 AM
From: Curtis E. Bemis	Respond to of 21876

Sort of presumptuous on your part to assume a market crash--have seen your dup post on CSCO thread. Hey, you are entitled to your opinion. Sort of like the Y2K'rs return to cave dwelling. You can glean info on the ramifications if you look at the effects on say CSCO after the blip in October 1997 and compare with less stalwart techs. Bottom line-- strong, well managed tech stocks with good products that address needs will fare just fine. LU seems to fit this category--CSCO as well. Good luck-