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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (10150)	7/13/1998 7:26:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Can someone explain to me who is going to buy AMZN today? Over the last couple of weeks, the price of AMZN was driven up by (ignoring the final short squeeze) 1. speculators and momentum players 2. innocent investors being lured in by media hype. The momentum has been broken and, if any anything, is now down. Apart from day-trading, momentum players should drive it further down. Even the most innocent investor must have heard by now that AMZN is highly overvalued, and no broker should be able to recommend this stock with a straight face. I am sure that there is a big future for internet commerce. I am regularly buying airline tickets, theater tickets and even books (though not from Amazon) online. S&H is an important consideration for the latter, since it easily eats up your savings. Has it happened to other people that you make a big online purchase to reduce the costs of S&H, only to get the delivery in several instalments with high S&H charges on each? Very annoying and the last time I used that company. When I shop for airline tickets I typically get quotes from 5 to 10 online and telephone suppliers. If I don't get a price I like, I repeat the exercise a couple of days later. The variation on the DISCOUNT price is typically of order 30 %. So there are quite substantial savings available for people who look around, and for big-ticket items like airline tickets it certainly is worth it. My point is that this is how I think e-commerce will develop. People will search for the steepest discount on their own or using a shopping bot. In a competitive discount market the only thing that counts is the price and the amount of savings, not the brand name of the supplier. That is different from buying books in a shop, since most people probably find buying books an enjoyable experience, so the shopping environment becomes important. How low will AMZN go before it is a speculative buy again?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (10150)	7/13/1998 11:06:00 AM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Very nice summation of the fundamental outlook. I can go along with the sales growth outlook as being possible but still highly speculative this far ahead in the game. How many stocks are valued based on mere sales and earnings possibilities five years out? Of course, until internet stocks got speculated out of control only a few instances of this degree of rampant speculation have occurred. Each time that happened the stocks got taken down. What I doubt will occur is being able to maintain 20% margins. Company management has already warned analysts that margins are expected to be lower in the future. I think the competitive nature of the net will notch them down to 15% at best. I suppose that is why management is grasping at straws in saying that they will add cigars, wine, toys, etc. that they hope can add healthier margins that will protect them from the onslaugth of competition. Go Amazon.com!!! Rally to 130?!!! (shorter's paradise)