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To: Arik T.G. who wrote (10153)	7/13/1998 8:23:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

From Marion on THF: Subject: Re: Net stock -Fish Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 12:14 EDT From: <A HREF="aol://3548:MarionsutS">MarionsutS</A> Message-id: <1998071216145000.MAA15465@ladder03.news.aol.com> <<YHOO IS NOT OVERVALUED. THE INTERNET IS JUST GETTING STARTED. SIMILAR TO THE PC INDUSTRY 20 YEARS AGO. YHOO AND AOL ARE THE NEXT MICROSOFTS AND INTELS. BUY MORE NOW>> The above post seems to capture the biggest misconceptions of the internet. The internet growth at the consumer level is actually slowing. This is supported from numbers from Jupiter Communications, Media Metrix, Relevant Knowledge etc. Even AOL is adding less modems per month then they were last year, and I see no complaints of busy signals. I am not saying that consumer internet usage isn't growing, only that growth is slowing as compared with previous years. Part of this misconception came from a Department of Commerce report that came out a few months ago about e-commerce. The biggest growth in the internet is coming from business to business e-commerce, not business to consumer e- commerce. Let me explain what business to business commerce is: 1) Company A needs to order a product from company B. 2) In the past, company A would have had their employee call Company B on the phone, or send a fax to company B. 3) An employee at company B would have taken that order, from phone or fax and entered it into their computer. 4)What is possible today, is that companies A's computer determines that it needs a product from company B. It can connect via the internet to company B's computer and check stock, and the computer can place the order with company B. (or the employee can place the order with company B) This is indeed a revolutionary thing. It has eliminated the need for several people, and it allows companies to better handle inventory etc. It presents a substantial savings to the businesses using it. However, none of the above creates any money or revenue oppurtunity for companies like Yahoo, AOL etc. There is no need for a portal or an online service in business to business commerce. The only investment play here, might be from the equipment suppliers. The other commerce is business to consumer e-commerce. Lets look at that. The belief is that companies will want to advertise on a portal, and give a percentage of their revenue to the portal for this. I think a big advantage to being on the internet, would be for a company to be able to go direct. Like Dell. If Dell doesn't wan't to pay CompUSA to sell their computers in their store, they are not likely to want to pay a "portal". After all, why would they need to. If someone wants to buy a computer from Dell they can simply go to Dell.com. The biggest players can simply advertise their web site directly, putting any small player at an enormous disadvantage. The point is, if consumer internet usage is slowing, and business to business use is not applicable, where does the enormous revenue growth being projected come from? <A HREF="mailto:marionsuts@aol.com">Marion</A>