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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (21728)	7/13/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

DLJ ESTIMATES CUT TO 86CENTS FOR 1999-FAIR VALUE is 26 or 30x pe -well, they loved amat at 40 a couple months back so go figure. amat said customers were very hesitant in this quarter so the company took an over cautious view. also, 40 billion dollers of capacity has been postponed in asia this year and at some point orders will come back and it will erupt like volcano. i believe sometime in 1999 we will be hearing talk about how semi companies have constraints and can't meet demand. still would not buy amat at some point it could collapse---take a look at nvls dlj downdraded and reduced estimates to 2.58 next year and thats only a 13 pe and seems nvls technology dominance protects them from this down turn than any other semi. people were shocked amat missed because the company just gave guidance but amat has not managed this downturn to well -imo-

To: Gottfried who wrote (21728)	7/13/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: Robert O	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

GM: Facinating post on options expiration. I knew something was up! Unfort. AMAT is not one of the stocks he has charted on the web site you reference. Is there any way for us to know what the optimal "pain" point would be for Friday's expiration? I always just imagined that whatever strike price was closest to the open on 3rd friday was where MMs would usher the price. I saw a striking example of this for June expiration in ADPT. The MMs literally ushered the price to the next lowest strike price and would not let it budge. I appreciate any input you may have for AMAT since the day looms near, I fear.