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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jbe who wrote (25594)	7/13/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

LONDON, July 13 (Reuters) - World oil markets hobbled lower on Monday, as a report of rising Iranian output aggravated doubts over producers' determination to cut back. International benchmark Brent had dipped to $12.82 a barrel by 1645 GMT, down four cents over the day and now less than a dollar above 10-year lows set in March. The latest losses will intensify the strain on OPEC producers to carry through 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of output cuts agreed so far this year. ''The market remains sceptical about OPEC's ability to maintain output disruption long enough to alter the structural surplus in the crude oil market,'' said a recent report by Weshington-based consultants Petroleum Finance Company. Doubts over producers' determination were exacerbated by a report from the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) that Iranian output had shot well above its supposed OPEC strictures. The respected industry newsletter said Iranian production had risen to 3.832 millon bpd in June -- up 230,000 bpd from May and almost at par with the April figure of 3.833 million bpd. This is 350,000 bpd more than Iran agreed to in March's producer pact, and over 800,000 bpd above its the output it pledged from July 1 at last month's OPEC meeting. Iranian production has been under particular scrutiny since Luis Guisti, head of Venezuela's state oil firm PDVSA, last week publicly berated Iran for cheating on its cutback commitments. Analysts say that if producers maintain their current 75 percent cut compliance rate they should drag Brent prices back up to around $16 a barrel by the end of the year. But they caution that the size of the stock surplus piled up so far this year means that any infant recovery would be at the mercy of further economic downturn in Asia, or a slackening of cutback efforts. ''It will take close to two quarters of concerted restraint by OPEC to balance crude oil markets,'' said PFC. Prospects also retreated of prices getting a lift from supply disruptions in Nigeria, Africa's largest producer Rioting triggered last week by the death of opposition leader Moshood Abiola cooled off after an autopsy by U.S., British and Canadian experts found he died of natural causes and ruled out poisoning. Prices in dollars per barrel: July 13 July 10 (1645 GMT) (close) IPE August Brent 12.82 12.86 NYMEX August light crude 13.86 13.87