Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Year 2000 (Y2K) Embedded Systems and Utilities -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (21)	7/15/1998 2:38:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89

'Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem June 12, 1998 TESTIMONY Louis J. Marcoccia President MTS/PeopleSource 516-451-7312 888-375-3105 LMARCOCCIA @AOL.COM Biography As a Year 2000 Project Director since 1991, I am a 'hands-on' practitioner and planned and directed the Year 2000 project for the New York City Transit Authority. For the last two years, as a consultant, I have personally done work for over 38 clients dealing with activities from Finding, Fixing, and Testing computer and embedded systems. I have my own two-day Year 2000 workshop and I am a frequent Year 2000 speaker. I have testified, as an expert witness, at the first Unite States Congressional hearing on the Year 2000 in 1996. Introduction The Utility Industry has not met the criteria for a successful implementation of a Year 2000 project for their mission critical Systems. Therefore they have failed in their responsibility to their stockholders, partners, and customers. The Industry regulators have also failed in their responsibility to the American people. I believe their failure will cause major disruptions here in the United States and overseas. I say this based on the following analysis. .. home.swbell.net

To: John Mansfield who wrote (21)	7/15/1998 5:44:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 89

'Is there really a risk of power failure? asked in the TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Q&A Forum Can someone with real technical knowledge tell me whether there is a risk of power cuts from embedded chips failing. This is the biggie (apart from financial failures!), this is the one thats sending everyone into paroxysms. Is it real. Would older power stations (with primitive control systems) like tose in the UK! be at risk. If there is no risk, then we don't have to have these endless discussions about the end of society, self- sufficiency etc. Who can clear the air, Ed? I know its been asked a thousand times before. Best Regards Richard Asked by Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk) on July 15, 1998. Answers Glad you used the word "a risk of" rather than "will be"! There fore the answer is yes. But then we need to know if you are talking of 5%, 95%, 1%, or 99% risk. ;) Not trying to use weasel words, just pointing out how difficult it is to get a handle on the sliperiest question of Y2K. It appears that many people are thinking that Y2K will arrive precisely at 00:00 01/01/2000 and not a second before nor a second after. These people might be very surprised if bank runs start in April of 1999 and bring down the global banking system before May. Doesn't the UK's govt. go on fiscal year 2000 on 4/1/99? What if the power plants keep running on 1/1/2000 but run low on coal on 2/18/2000? Gary North expostulates "it's a systemic problem!!!". Ed Yourdon talks about the "ripple effect" and has drawings of little circles with interconnecting lines. Most people still don't get it. An entire power system might be 100% Y2K compliant, but if it is coal fired and the railroads are hopelessly bogged down due to tracking software and signal control glitches, it doesn't matter. No coal = no steam. Governments will of course pay attention to the big companies, but if certain critical small companies fail (bad bookkeeping, failed bank, whatever) that provide critical parts to keep the big boys up and running, it doesn't matter. So it is impossible to predict what will happen. The big question is this, what percentage of indivivdual components of an economic system can fail before the entire system fails? I think it is safe to say, we just don't know. It might be more accurate to say, we don't have a clue, nothing like this has ever happened before. The closest(?) thing would be the 1929 stock market crash, but that was in just one sector of the economy, the financial markets. I have to laugh, another person in another thread was lambasting the "gloom and doomers" and said that he/she was not interested in what MIGHT happen and will only take action when we know what WILL happen. Such faith in human omniscience is interesting, though perhaps fatal. Answered by R. K.Watt (rkwatt@hotmail.com) on July 15, 1998. You can get some idea about how badly society can get banged about before it collapses from WWII. In the UK, a goodly chunk of the normal working population was conscripted, and a good chunk of the peacetime economy was diverted to war production. Raw materials supplies were badly hurt, almost everything was rationed. And, of course, there were bombs raining down. Apart from the risk of getting killed or maimed, the rest was inconvenience and hardship but no worse. Nazi Germany refused to surrender, and got damaged still worse towards the end of the war. There, it's unclear whether society could have struggled back to "normal" without outside help. It's probably reasonable to say this is a fair estimate of where the edge lies, if there's no "outside". More recently, there's the example of Iraq. I have no sympathy at all for her so-called "government", but a lot for the suffering of her people. It's also possible to see that life goes on, somehow. As to the original question, it's the biggest unknown in the whole equation. There is certainly a risk of power cuts (I'd say a certainty). The real question, however, is whether the electricity generation infrastructure could fail so badly that it becomes impossible to repair before society collapses. My own opinion is that this is about as likely as a nuclear war, and I have no plans to prepare for either nightmare. More probably, there will be short-term uncontrolled black-outs followed by longer-term rota power cuts as a way of reducing demand to match a restricted supply while things are repaired. Inconvenience, hardship, but not the end. I also acknowlege I'm guessing, as is everyone else. For reliable technical info, check out Rick Cowles site (www.euy2k.com). Answered by Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk) on July 15, 1998 greenspun.com

To: John Mansfield who wrote (21)	7/18/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 89

'Pacific Gas and Electric Company is making a substantial commitment of time and resources so that the company's information technology will continue to perform well into the next century. What is the Year 2000 problem? Isn't there a computer program that can just fix all the dates? Have you established a formal plan to tackle the Year 2000 problem? Who manages Pacific Gas and Electric Company's program? What is Pacific Gas and Electric Company doing at its nuclear plant? What types of critical computer systems are you repairing? How is Pacific Gas and Electric Company correcting computer systems? What about other types of technology? Has Pacific Gas and Electric Company communicated with business partners to check on their Year 2000 efforts? Who can I contact if I have more questions? ... 'http://www.pge.com/resources/compliance/