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To: Lucretius who wrote (1039)	7/13/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

LT - talking about risk-reward being stretched, I think you understand this first hand. Your big name favorite techs are not only being stretched to the upside, but they are practically the safest heaven stocks right now being chased by everyone who want and need to buy stocks. Drew Peck came out on CNBC and predicted this tech rally has two more months of life left, in time for you to cash in your Sept calls. Outside of this group of leader stocks, everything else is just speculative, they go up some day but come down on others. Most midcap to small caps are losing ground. I don't pay a lot of attention to your favorite chart pattern, e.g. head-and-shoulder, but looking for stocks other than this elite group for immediate future market direction is no use. The drillers are being stretched in the opposite direction just like DELL and MSFT being stretched to the upside. The key is timing. All these will come to a pause, whether violently or not, and a new theme will take over. Give that theme a few months and if no other leadership emerge, DELL, MSFT and gangs will again rule on and on until this bull market ends. I would not stand in front of this group of elite stocks and play long term in the short direction. The most I would play them is to slo-mo them in the short side say in a couple of months. A better risk-reward is to just trade them. I have learned my lesson with MU. OSX drops 3% today but that masks some fo the real damage on the drillers. The driller with the poshest office got the hottest seat today, down 14% and more. Guess who I'm talking about? Also, guess who stood up tall today - RIG. The spread between RIG and DO continues to widen and for a conservative play, one can short RIG and long DO just for this play. Just a suggestion, not that I'll do it myself. On the service side, the ones that will bounce up big time will be the service companies and the deepwater in any bounces, technical or real. FGII, VRC, RIG, DO and EVI are my big bounce plays. Already in VRC Sept 20 calls. SCTR - Doc, this is very painful. I have reached my maximum pain and am dropping the ball on this one tomorrow. Really no fun at all.

To: Lucretius who wrote (1039)	7/14/1998 8:54:00 AM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

LT, It's a rare moment when I get to take a small teensy-weensy poke at a person whose opinion I highly respect...YADA, YADA, YADA..., however I have to go for it or you wouldn't respect me in the morning <g>. Anyway, we gotta take you down a tiny notch or else your head won't fit through the door anymore....<gggg> Yes, however, I do remember acurately your "teens" comment about NE. NINETEEN, to be exact. We're not far away. R/R is being stretched, to be sure, but I gotta find something in oil to short because I am getting a "new one" reamed every day... My shorting idea last week for a ST play was right on the money... So much for concepts... Regards,