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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (1453)	7/14/1998 6:54:00 AM
From: Graeme Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

Good suggestion on ALYD. I just briefly looked at their recent news and profile and they look to be a disaster. Last quarter and this quarter should be the peak for Y2K firms, yet last quarter they made an entire 9 cents a share profit. That is after losing over 50 cents in the previous year. Y2K has reached its peak in terms of revenues. I expect by next quarter, and certainly Q4 98, that revenue growth will be beginning to reverse for any Y2K company. Hence ALYD has about 2 quarters to somehow raise its book value to $17. An operating profit of $10 this quarter (sequential growth of 11,111%) followed by $7 next quarter should just about make it. Pure Y2K plays are easy money. Take the current stock price, subtract the companies book value, subtract estimated 1998,1999 earnings and you will have the per share profit you will make over the year. You don't even need to wait until 1/1/2000. As soon as revenues start to shrink (by the end of the year) the stock prices will rapidly begin to converge on book value. The only risk may be that they will announce an intention to buy Excite and start selling fish over the internet. If this happens cover immediately. Graeme