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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (36198)	7/14/1998 6:37:00 AM
From: mtiago	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

What analysts are making comments? TIA Regards, mt

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (36198)	7/14/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Skeets, I think the current DRAM scam will have little impact on business, but it has already had a huge impact on MU's stock price. The scam is based upon two false premises: 1. That it is production shutdowns causing the firming in DRAM prices. The fact is, it is mostly the holding back of inventory, which eventually has to be sold. Any production cutbacks are announced in shouts heard around the world, while inventory levels are classified top secret. <G> 2. That there is some permanency to the reductions. There isn't. Of course these folks will sell their inventory. And of course they will run at full capacity again, because that is how you lower variable costs per chip. And of course they will build the huge number of new fabs they announced, as they have to keep up with the technology. In the long run, these scams inevitably hurt the participants' bottom lines more than if they never happened. A short period of stabilization is followed by a long period of landslide in the price of the chips. The only way to make this work is for some big players to get out of the business. That isn't happening. Marginal players like Motorola may get out (they've been getting out of DRAM for longer than I've been giving up sweets <G>), but the big players who remain have to reach for critical mass. And that is killing prices at a time when pc boxes are selling like fur coats at a PETA convention. MB