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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc chatman who wrote (25664)	7/14/1998 9:56:00 AM
From: marc chatman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

My computer must be broken. I'm seeing green on my screen. Look for volume as the key.

To: marc chatman who wrote (25664)	7/14/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Open Season on ''Bears'' starts today !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! In all seriousness; it is a prerequisite to have the flip side analysis on all issues. If there wasn't capitulation and opposing sentiment - I wouldn't be 100% margined and buying with my last leveragble dollar at these ''historic buying level opportunities'' that James Cramer will be writing about in 5 years just like the Bank sector of 1991. per marc's post: ''looks like a lot of negative comments coming''... The question is: Is the glass 1/2 full or 1/2 empty ? The correct answer will make a lot of money for those who dare to venture against the grain into the land of ''death by 1000 cuts''... I obviously say the glass is 1/2 full. Take HLX's announcement yesterday after the close - a 43% increase in revenues, a substantial gain in earnings, has a backlog that exceed last years fiscal year sales ! & beats estimates by 50% and is up 10% this a.m. on heavy volume. GLM a dissapointment; sold off 40% in 3 months ! ...tell me if this sounds like a stock deserving to sell off 40% in 3 months - "On a pretax basis, the second quarter of 1998 was the company's best ever," chief executive Bob Rose said. "Compared to the second quarter of 1997, revenues were up 53 percent and operating income was up 51 percent. Our dayrate drilling business recorded a 52 percent increase in revenues and an 84 percent increase in cash flow from operations comared to the corresponding prior-year quarter." Let the Big Boys shake you out big time right before the earnings come out, that ''prove'' the sky is not falling and that there is not just life, but actually record revenues and earnings being grown in the 'ole patch ! Today's rebound shows that this was perhaps the last ''major'' bear/short run on this sector. The cat is out of the bag --- with these earnings reports; you guys bought into this myth big time and watch these guys gobble up this sector bigtime after shaking out the weak to ridiculous price levels. What changed from yesterday to today ? This is not to say that there will not be some dayrate/utilization softening - perhaps. These guys have to fulfill their fiduciary duties and avoid investor lawsuit by cautioning in a prudent manner... you can jump on this for more ''the sky is falling'' verification or you could have listened to PKD's conference call where they could not have been more clear - that there is no freefall in the GOM Jack Up market and actually rates are reasonably good and they are right NOW just starting to see a increase in activity ! You have to look at the numbers --- ''it's the number stupid !'' & not listen to the gloom & doom. Sure oil is weak & it aint going anywhere fast... but the numbers DO NOT support these selloff price levels. The fact is E&P activity will increase 6% at a minimum - this is the worst case, downward revised number for 1999 ! Drilling, laying pipe, doing seismic surveys, building Rigs. tools , equipment and moving oil & crews by boat hasn't stopped, nor will it. Seize the opportunity; you may not see another one like it for years... One last harraung; for those ''market timers'' who say don't average down or buy into this weakness; how many studies, reports or statististics (let alone the point of index funds vs. traded/managed funds) must there be that show that a buy & hold philosophy out performs a market - timing or trading philosophy by a wide margin over time. This ''lets wait untill it bottoms mentality is a bunch of psychobabble hyperbole... How many people bought right at the Jan bottom, or the tail of the March selloff or caught the big 6% 1 day selloff in June ? Try telling me that many timed the entry point of the April to May rise and then got out before the June/July selloff... it'smore likely they got on in May in a market timing model and got crushed in the ensuing 45 day decimation of the patch; my point is that one was more likely to be buying at a peak only to be crushed in another selloff shortly thereafter. I'd rather make a simple, logical entry in a 20% + correction and then continue to average down or to buy new positions in selected stocks on any further major corrections of 10-15-20%. If one bought in the March selloff and then averaged down in the June/July sellofff and then buys again if we see another 15% or so selloff - you tell me with a straight face that you're going to outperform me ! I'm not saying buying on every $1-$2 dip, but if you were in FGII @ $29, then buy at $25 and again it we ever see $20-1 or below... all this ''market timing'' trading in and out, is only relevant for 1/2 of 1% of all experienced traders and few of them actually outperform a simple sector mutual fund or a individual stock buy & hold strategy - and we all know that's reality. ""The Patch'' ... be there or be square! The train is leaving the station...