This is long, but full of good comments from Readware et al on the Fool....
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Subject: Re: CD Radio
Date: Fri, Jul 10, 1998 12:12 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071016122100.MAA16974@ladder01.news.aol.com>
The orbit you mention is a Molniya orbit, which Russia has executed for its own sats. A Molniya executed at Plesetsk in fact in May-- it was an early warning sat. Molniya orbits have been around since the lae 60s. I think in fact one of Russia's earliest sats was called the Molniya. A Molniya has never been done commercially, but that should not be a problem. True, Ariane could not execute from Fr. Guyana. That is an equatorial plane. In
this regard CD sats would no longer be "GEOs".
As I understand it, the CD orbits were changed so that the ground tower problem could be resolved. Apparently, it had been determined that the issue of fade would not be overcome unless the orbit was near the North Pole (as the Molniya). There had been some study done claiming that the tower issue would make CD inoperant in some areas (I suspect the claim is true). So to avoid construction capital requirements for towers (which would have been very
substantial, raising all sorts of financing questions for shareholders), SSL advised the Molniya (which would take care of footrprinting without fade-- at least on paper it does).
However, I am not an expert in CD Radio. Maybe there is a board on AOL that you can go to where people follow it more closely than I do.
Subject: Re: Satmex
Date: Fri, Jul 10, 1998 17:11 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071021112000.RAA20985@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Joseph del Riego was referring to commercial revenues only. SatMex also has governmental reveneus. The Loral projection of $133 million is on target.
Subject: Re: Japanese Sat-Tech
Date: Sat, Jul 11, 1998 21:21 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071201214300.VAA03022@ladder01.news.aol.com>
There are no Japanese based satcom "pure plays". NEC is the largest maker of VSATs in the world, Mitsubishi, and the Korean Samsung, are fierce at work developing USATs (ultra small aperture terminals. These, incidentally, are not "small VSATs". Actually, VSATs are not terminals at all. While VSAT means "very small aperture terminal", actually a VSAT is a Very Small Aperture Antenna. A terminal is where the signal reaches the end-user.)
Usats will be used for high data rate hypermedia DTH satcom, the next technology in broadband applications. They (through the end-user) will be able to retun a digital pathway to the satellite, and this will be the first instance of interactive DTH. Satcoms today have antenna aperture sizes of 18-25 metres (the so-called "aperture shift")-- and with on-board signal processing (through DSP), signaling, and signal regeneration capabilities (enhanced
not only by DSP but also "polarization purity" techniques), it has now become highly practical to have Usats for the end-user. This is the so-called "law of inversion"-- the more powerful the sat and the larger the antenna, the smaller the earth system or tools can be. The goal is to get the Usat (an interactive micro-terminal) below the $1,000 price by the year 2001. I have seen a model of the Skybridge Usat and it is the size of a Think Pad. In
the United States a company by the name of Broadcom has been developing a satellite chip for Usats. They announced a prototype some three weeks ago.
Where Japan comes into play in satellite life today is the ETS-- their Experiemental Test Satellites. Along with the US military's ACTS, the German "Copernicus" and Italy's ITALSAT, these have been the satellite systems designing the Ka-band protocols for the year 2001. Their latest success has been in accomplishing "graceful degradation" in the case of "rain fade" or "precipitation attenuation", about which I posted some time ago. The next goal is
to gain frequency re-use of up to 1000 times. Network 28 already claims to have achieved a re-use of 1000 times in a 1 GHz band. Teledesic is seeking a 20,000 re-use capability. The re-use facility is important in gaining broadband efficiencies (lower costs-- "bytes per second"-- for the end-user).
Japan is also very heavily involved through its COMETS in the 5th generation systems. The primary characteristic of these will be 25KW of power and nano-second on-board processing. This is not Jules Verne's stuff anymore. Lockheed and Loral are already at work on the 25 KW sat. This, however, is not expected till some time in the year 2004. Nano-second on-board processing will be achieved through DSP and "intelligent" chips, not dreamed of 10 years
ago.
There was some shift seven years ago towards solid state in transponders, and Japan was moving to capitalize on this shift. However, TWTA came back in the case of Ku-band and Ka-band, so that possibility for Japan has diminished.
Subject: Re: G* phone services and Qualcomm CDMA delivery
Date: Sat, Jul 11, 1998 23:11 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071203114100.XAA16948@ladder01.news.aol.com>
The "signal" question you mention is offset by the G* handset "antenna gain". The "voice" part of the G* system has been tried on their handsets already, and there is no voice degradation reported.
G* is not meant to compete with cellular, but to be a cost effective and highly affordable telephony "add-on" where cellular cannot "cell" (lacks possible contiguity with another cell because of infrastructure terrestrial impediments, costs, &c.) .
G*'s operating costs are far lower than iridium's. G*'s break-even is roughly $.07/minute at full capacity (approximately 11.7-12 billion minutes of usage/year for G*) vs. $1.40/minute for Iridium World (1.5-1.7 billion minutes of usage/year for Iridium). Additionally, the G* handset is 1/4 the cost of Iridium's. While the targeted markets differ, the cost spread is severe.
At some point, perhaps in the 2nd gen phones, G* will offer the direct wireless quote capability you mention on its crystal, as one would think Iridium and ICO will also.
The first task is, as the G* ads say" to get "the whole world talking", however. That starts sometime 1st qtr 1999.
Subject: Re: G* phone services and Qualcomm CDMA delivery
Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 00:09 EDT
From: Smolky
Message-id: <1998071204093600.AAA23981@ladder01.news.aol.com>
ICO ipo i think will be a fast mover in the begging of its trading
RON Perelman, he isnt our friend, he ruined many companies and made money out of it, take for instance MRV marvel comics, now delisted, may not even trade anymore i dont know. He ran that stock to 31 cents and it was at more then $35 a share in late 1993. He ended making a lot of money on that play anyway even though all the investors lost a lot of money. He is mega wealthy and as long as loral stays healthy he wont have any affect on the company,
but he is the director and he isnt going anywhere i dont think...He isnt a problem right now, but when Bernard moves on i would not be suprissed if he tried getting his noise in, he is powerful rich and has usually not been good for shareholders when he becomes very active.
IRIDF's commercials looks like there are more parts to follow, they only provide an introduction to the service, but it seems like a layman might not even catch on to the product.
They have time, im suprissed they havent made full page ad's in NY Times and WSJ and Barrons yet, maybe IBD also, FT, and others.
Smolky
UUPLINK or other meteor guru's what is at a greater risk GEO's MEO's or LEO's in terms of getting hammared by the meteors?
I know of 4 precautions companies are planning on taking
please add on
1) turning the satellite to protect delicate and sensitive (important) instraments
2) turning the Solar arrays perpendicular to the direction of the stream so the side faces the onslaught and not the large receptor side of the array
3) turn off the power
4) full time even extra people watching the sats as often as possible to check for any problems with it.
PLASMA will be the worst part of the storm because there will be more meteors and they will be traveling faster then normal but they will be a lot smaller and less dense then normal meteors not in the leonid storm so i dont think the actual particles will knock out many satellites, however the storm usually will be ionized, which when hitting or getting close enough to the satellites or anything else for that matter, will force electrons into or out
of the satellite which can damage the satellite if this happens internally. Satellites have a special paint on the outside which dampens this affect but if meteors break this seal then the plasma can take action.
Smolky
Subject: Re: G* phone services and Qualcomm CDMA delivery
Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 00:32 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071204323800.AAA02558@ladder03.news.aol.com>
Smolky--
Did you ever give thought to the possibility that Ron Perelman might (to use your phrase) "move on" before "Bernie"?
Why worry about imponderables? Best to worry about what is within one's power. By definition worrying about what is not within one's power will not change what it was that was not within one's power. (If it did, then it would be within one's power...)
Don't worry so much about the upcoming G* launches. Worrying about the Zenit-2 that just launched did no one any good, did it?
Subject: ALCATEL
Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 11:36 EDT
From: Toothog
Message-id: <1998071215363500.LAA05436@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I did buy 100 sahres of alcatel 2 weeks ago around 40 .
1) I think it may be a mini lucent
2) It is my hedge in case SKYBRIDGE doesnt go public. Readware says the IPO is 2nd quarter 1999 by bear stearns,i've heard from others that it is unlikely that there will be one. If there is then I'll sell my alcatel (hopefully at 60) to buy sky. If not I own the major parter of ALA(even though loral will get a piece i figure it wont be as much as I want)
Any thought as far as alcatel price targets, EPS, My strategy etc.??
thanks
THE TOOTHOG
Subject: Re: ALCATEL
Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 12:11 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071216114300.MAA09153@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Whoever told you Skybridge is not going to have a public offering of equity is misinformed.
Subject: Re: Japanese Sat-Tech
Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 12:28 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071216284100.MAA10932@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Japan has, it is true, been heavily involved in DBS satcom work in the area of HDTV, that is correct. There is the experimental SONY HDTV project now at MIT-- a 2,000 line by 2,000 line resolution. Digital compression techniques get the throuput requirment down to 200-500 megabits/second. This is the Japanese MUSE project, --using two very wide-band transponders on its BS-1 DBS.
Not to be outdone, however-- there is "multiple raster-imaging" (3-D Television) research being done today. This is feasible since it is expected that in 8 or 9 years satcoms will reach transmission speeds of 100Gigabits/second. Multiple-raster takes shots from 7 different angles and then "recreates" them into a 3-D image.
And then there is Holovision. This will definitely take 100Gigabits/second throughput, and is being planned for telemedicine. Improvements in satcom efficiencies are expected to bring down Holovision transmission costs (some 5-fold) to make Holovision a viable economic service.
The Holovision work is being done in the US military, and is not an effort of the Japanese companies. So, while Japan has worked on "perfect" vision (HDTV), it is not the only country working on advanced transmission for sats.
Subject: Re: SKYBRIDGE
Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 16:52 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071220520900.QAA10922@ladder01.news.aol.com>
You don't have to hope "they" (whoever "they" are) are misinformed re: a Skybridge underwriting. The only uncertainty is the time of the offering, not whether.
Subject: Re: Optus
Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 16:53 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071220533600.QAA17241@ladder03.news.aol.com>
The privatisation of Brasil's satcom portfolio will occur in 1999. There is nothing to report on that now.
Subject: Re: Japanese Sat-Tech
Date: Sun, Jul 12, 1998 21:16 EDT
From: Xexedew
Message-id: <1998071301162500.VAA20907@ladder03.news.aol.com>
Readware-Do you see any investment opportunity in Japan. Which stocks in particular. thanks
Subject: Re: Japanese Sat-Tech
Date: Mon, Jul 13, 1998 09:38 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071313381900.JAA14605@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I only know abiut satellite companies because of my job. I know next to nothing about stocks in Japan-- or for that matter, stocks that trade in the New York exchange. I was only giving some development news on the Japanese satellite industry when a poster asked about it.
Subject: Re: SKYBRIDGE
Date: Mon, Jul 13, 1998 17:42 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071321423000.RAA09085@ladder01.news.aol.com>
40% Alcatel, 12% Loral, 12% Mitsubishi, 6% Sharp Electronics, 10% public. The remainder of the owenership is yet to be defined. The Mitsubishi percentage is an educated guess-- not a definite known percentage.
Subject: LOR price movement
Date: Mon, Jul 13, 1998 20:05 EDT
From: Kelcon
Message-id: <1998071400051600.UAA28388@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Would welcome any thoughts comments on the following observation. While watching the Don Phillips on the Nightly Business Report this evening I couldn't help but notice the number of stocks that have had very strong positive price movements based on: 1. positive comments or articles in financial publications, and 2. brokerage firm upgrades.
G*, CDRD, LOR and Bernard Schwartz were covered very favorably in June's Individual Investor. LOR received very positive comments by Ms. Arden Armstrong in this weeks Barron's. In the past month or so LOR has received BUY ratings from Merrill Lynch, Lehman Bros and JP Morgan. Yet the price of LOR just doesn't seem to move upward very much whereas other stocks seem to get real nice "pops" from less coverage.
The thing is that the future of LOR looks great, and many of the key building blocks are already in place but still yet it languishes while other, lesser companies...without LOR's solid fundamentals...move on the slightest coverage or positive comment by some talking head. While I'm definitely a solid long-term LOR holder with no intention of selling, I'd be less than honest if I didn't admit my frustation of watching Amazon.com, for example, or
AOL, now at $114 on minuscule earnings, just keep going up and up.
I realize LOR has gone up very nicely in the past year or so, it's just that others seem to go up so much more with so much less going for them. I know I'm venting a bit here but think I got my thought across. Any comments or thoughts are welcome.
Regards to all,
KELCON
Subject: Re: LOR price movement
Date: Mon, Jul 13, 1998 21:10 EDT
From: Readware
Message-id: <1998071401101000.VAA07955@ladder01.news.aol.com>
I think you will have to wait till LOR starts showing "price momentum" before "the mad rush" starts to own it. That will occur once it successfully launches its satcoms and LEOs. Till its cash generating capabilities are realized (through "transponders in the sky" and its G* telephony system) Loral will remain an "event-driven" stock (rising because of launches and/or acquisitions). That is not unusal for satellite company stocks. PanAmSat
in 1996 was an $18 stock. I believe it reached $67 this year-- because it started generating a revenue growth that was doubted would ever occur. I can recall when PanAmSat was looked upon as a waste of money. As it added to its fleet and made significant business gains thereby in Latin America and Asia, the price started moving up.
I have long thought that the Zenit-2 launch would be the linchpin for a "break-out" in Loral's price. The stock price is a topuch ahead of where I thought it would be at this time, probably because the 10-year bond is appreciably below 6% (a guess on my part).
Keep in mind that Loral has launched no GEO since last May, and that the Zenit-2 was put off 6-7 weeks (an eternity for the 'now is the time' horizon for speculators). It also just raised $500 million in cash, and only in March completed its acquisition of Orion. Further, it was accused of abetting inimical foreign powers, and the uncertainty in the minds of some that those accusations bred caused a price drop-off apparently (however ahead of itself
one might have thought Loral at $34/share to be). The stock fell from about $32 to $24 1/4.
By late March of 1999 (8 months from now) Loral will have its original (1996) business plan fleet in-orbit, to be followed thereon by (in addition) Europe*Star (late 1999-2000), and then C*-Skybridge (2001). The 15 sat fleet, however, will be in-orbit 8 months from now, totalling some 20 by 2001. Besides the three G* launches scheduled for later this year (which I am fairly optimistic will occur in a near timely fashion), Loral has scheduled for
launch a Skynet, an Orion, and a SatMex, with two Skynets quickly occurring in the 1st qtr 1999, three more G* launches, and another Orion in the Spring, followed by another Skynet in late 1999-- not including Europe*Star.
Curious as it appears, before a stock starts moving in price, it must first start moving in price. When others who look at a stock only because it is ascending in price as a reason to buy start buying Loral (because events have caused others first to buy it), it will start moving-- and overshoot fundamentally based price objectives.
It appears that most stocks on Wall Street are bought "in the short-term" because they "move"-- not for really reasons such as fundamentals. Although at the end of the day it is fundamentals that make the final judgment.
If the performance of PanAmSat is a harbinger of Loral's future price movement, its days in the $20s by late 1999 will just have been that-- days in the $20s.
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