Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DavidG who wrote (36208)	7/14/1998 9:30:00 AM
From: TREND1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

david If MU can not go above 30 today, then a trading top would be in place. yesterday was first day in a long time without DHH Larry Dudash

To: DavidG who wrote (36208)	7/14/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

>>I think you are taking my statement out of context with my conversation with LT. Although Micron lost $106 million last quarter does not mean they are not making money on DRAM chips this quarter.<< wanna bet? seriously. you make statements like this that are so absurdly false and then you don't take responsibility for them later - at least, imho. if mu loses money this q from operations then then you post how much you like me and adore my personality and unequaled analysis. if mu makes money from operations then i do the same for you? so, just how confident are you in your own statement - i'm VERY confident in mine ;-) >>What we constantly have in this DRAM industry are moving targets that not all SEMI companies are getting the opportunity to take shots at any more, given their limited funds and inability to upgrade their fabs.<< dram is definitely moving. right now it is swimming next to the tidy bowl man ;-) >>Now last Quarter Micron lost significant money on EDO which dropped down to $1.50 and in some cases a $1. Similar situation with SDRAM although prices this quarter have at least stopped dropping while Micron production costs are also dropping.<< remember when you argued sdram would save mu b/c of the better pricing? ;-) >>So it is probable that as MU improves their efficiencies as prices stabilize they will be back to profitabibility on this product line while OTHER SEMI companies are still losing money...but this is small potatoes now.<g><< mu MAY be able to make money only if major competitors hold back inventory and allow mu to dump their inventory at artificially elevated levels. just as mike pointed out the last time this happened - you know, when mu was profitable ;-) - the after is ALWAYS MUCH WORSE. but, there are plenty of suckers and they may run with the stock price of mu extrapolating as they did when my was in the $50s... >>... the big story is that Micron now has 70% wafer starts for PC100 chips...and this is in a market where a LIMITED number of the semicomputer manufactures are competing, and they are making money on these products with the current premiums... and in some cases there is an uptick in prices.<< please cite your sources for 70% of wafer starts being pc100 and mu's current cost to mftr pc100 components. if you have a link to pc100 pricing, i'd appreciate that too. i doubt intel will sacrifice market share to subsidize mu's profits. i also doubt boxmakers will sacrifice margins to subsidize market share. pc growth is slowing dramatically and you don't solve that by increasing component prices ;-) Also Micron is upgrading to .21 micron in their fabs which will increase their capacity while significantly reducing their costs... this will blow the socks off most of their Asian competitors.<< but not all, what asian mftr is at 0.18? ;-) also, capacity will go up. in fact, the largest dram mftr in the world will drastically increase capacity and prices will move up according to david's first law of economics ;-) >>The asians see this, plus MU's new TXN acquisition, and are now realizing they do not belong in this business...so as they move out of the business and the competition is reduced, the prices will stabilize or rise giving MU significant profits.<< nice story. won't happen, imho. at least not the major players. they also see mu's financial weakness and may decide to knock them out of the business. the bottom line is if you leave dram you leave all semiconductor production according to one key exec - not an easy decision - and that isn't considering the billions invested. btw, if a korean company is selling below mu's production cost and is ruled to not be dumping by an american agency that has an incentive to rule in mu's favor - then that american agency has ruled, once and for all, that korean company's cost of production is less than mu's no matter what mu says. not that they s/b believed. they can't even get their public pronouncements to match their sec filings ;-) jmho... Good luck trading

To: DavidG who wrote (36208)	7/16/1998 1:00:00 AM
From: Ed Beers	Respond to of 53903

David, "Although Micron lost $106 million last quarter does not mean they are not making money on DRAM chips this quarter." During the last conference call, they indicated that their ASP for 16 Mbit parts was $2.60. Even given recent "price stabilization", it seems obvious that ASPs will be way down this quarter and that this quarters loss will be even greater. I don't see any signs that capacity is going away. Production cut backs have occurred because prices have dropped below the marginal cost of production. Remember that Micron/TI is going to have a huge increase in capacity as the newly acquired fabs get upgraded. Ed