DOCSIS Modems May Face
Delays [from MultiChannel News]
July 13, 1998:
By FRED DAWSON & LESLIE ELLIS
Much-touted standards-based cable modems, expected
to be in stores by the holidays, may face delays into the
first quarter of next year.
While leading MSOs have long made it clear that they
want the new modems in time to begin rollouts this fall,
many have also raised the bar on the performance levels
that they expect from the gear.
Those expectations led to the development of new
iterations of the cable-data standard and to a split in
demand between those that want something now and
those that want something better, later.
The upshot: Many vendors don't see the demand that
they were expecting as they get closer to production.
"I can anticipate that Bay [Networks Inc.] will ship in
excess of 200,000 [proprietary] modems in '99," said
Karl May, vice president and general manager of
broadband technology at Bay, a leading supplier of cable
modems that is set to be acquired by Nortel.
But while the company is committed to begin shipping
standards-compliant modems by September in the
thousands of units, "It's hard to figure out where" they'll
be shipped, May added.
"From the perspective of industry expectations, demand
is shaping up to be weaker than expected at this point in
time," agreed Dick Day, vice president and general
manager of the marketing division within Motorola Inc.'s
multimedia group. "At Motorola, our feeling was and
remains that the first quarter [of 1999] will be the time
frame when the transition to DOCSIS begins."
DOCSIS -- for Data Over Cable Service/Interoperability
Specification -- is the new name for the cable-modem
standard formerly known as MCNS (Multimedia Cable
Network System).
Indeed, despite what sources described as large-volume
orders in the making from Tele-Communications Inc. and
Rogers Cablesystems Inc., the demand side of the
picture is hazy.
Much is at stake over the next few months.
Competitively, the telephone industry is rushing to drive
its alternative high-speed-data platform, asymmetrical
digital subscriber line, into retail distribution, with support
from the same computer interests that cable claims as
partners.
"If we wait too long and telcos start deploying ADSL
everywhere, we'll be hurting," said Jorge Salinger, senior
director for digital-service networks at Adelphia Cable
Communications.
At least one analyst noted that the MSOs' publicly
stated intentions are often "spinnable."
TCI has said that it wants to offer data services to 2.5
million customers by year-end; MediaOne, which is now
partnered with Time Warner Cable in the high-speed
Road Runner venture, is reviewing responses to a
recently issued request for proposals in hopes of
deploying DOCSIS modems.
But a look behind the surface optimism isn't as rosy.
Data strategists at Time Warner, for example, don't plan
to make a move toward ordering DOCSIS modems until
the products are better-defined and tested.
Time Warner -- with more systems offering data services
than anyone -- will jump into the DOCSIS stream when
the time is right, and it is not prepared to say when that
will be, said Mario Vecchi, chief technical officer of Road
Runner, in comments relayed by spokeswoman Sandy
Colony.
"We're just not ready to talk about our plans in any
detail," Colony added.
The other MSO half of Road Runner said much the same
thing.
"We'll have to wait and see until we get through the RFP
process to determine what the timing and other details
will be," said Tom Cullen, vice president of Internet
services at MediaOne and chairman of the recently
formed Cable Broadband Forum.
Cullen said MediaOne could begin deploying
standardized modems "by the end of this year." He
emphasized, "We at MediaOne are adamant about
moving forward."
The companies that are hungriest to get their hands on
the new modems are those with recently upgraded
markets where conditions are ripe for launching
high-speed-data services.
Adelphia, for example, would love to move forward with
DOCSIS-headend deployments this fall, but that doesn't
seem likely at this point, Salinger said.
"The analogy that I use is that we're flying this plane
that's getting more and more weight added onto it as we
get ever more systems to the point where they're ready
to launch two-way data services," Salinger said. "We're
at the point where we can't wait any longer."
Right now, it looks like the safe bet for Adelphia is the
proprietary system supplied by Com21 Inc., Salinger
said.
"We don't think that MCNS modems will be available in
sufficient quantities and sufficiently tested for mass
deployment until sometime in the first quarter," he said.
While it's likely that some vendors will have product
available this fall -- with most of them using chips from
Broadcom Corp. that represent an early implementation
of the DOCSIS standard -- the situation is hard to read.
Currently, no vendors have signaled that they're ready to
go through the standards-certification process at Cable
Television Laboratories Inc.
Certification is "in the hands of the vendors," said
Rouzbeh Yassini, executive consultant to the CableLabs
DOCSIS project.
Yassini said vendors hoping to gain certification by late
August have until "noon on July 20" to submit their
intentions to the DOCSIS-certification team. Vendors
that don't apply by then will have additional opportunities
every month for the rest of the year.
"To be honest, they're working at it, but the quality has to
be there and the stability has to be there," Yassini said.
"If I had to guess, we're within a 60-day window of people
coming" to get certified.
While there should be enough DOCSIS 1.0-version chips
from Broadcom to spur a quick ramp-up to modem
production, DOCSIS-complaint headend gear is another
matter.
"We're still waiting for [headend] chip sets," said Andrew
Audet, business director for data products at Motorola,
adding that demand for the company's proprietary
system "has gone crazy over the last couple of months."
Adding to the uncertainties has been "feature creep."
Vendors, eager to satisfy MSO desires, are continually
adding features to their proprietary systems that raise
the bar on what the market expects from the DOCSIS
modems. That makes it hard for MSOs to know when to
take the plunge.
"I've been concerned when I hear rumors that several of
our customers are pushing off the implementation of
[DOCSIS] devices until we achieve third- or
fourth-generation maturation of the specifications," May
said.
New uncertainty was injected into the extensions picture
over the past two weeks, when Broadcom told its
customers that a planned chip -- the 3220B, which
includes techniques to let operators differentiate classes
of service -- will not ship.
The reason why, Broadcom officials said, is because
production schedules for an integrated chip -- the 3300,
which includes the features of the 3220B -- had been
accelerated to within one month of the planned ship date
for the 3220B.
Cable-modem vendors took the news from Broadcom as
an edict that clouded the timing question.
Broadcom officials insisted last week that the demise of
the 3220B was "just a suggestion," and that they were
"trying to gauge reaction" from the cable-modem-vendor
community.
"We think that what's best for the industry is to bring the
next-generation [integrated] chip out as soon as
possible, which will take significant costs out of the
subscriber unit" -- on the order of 25 percent to 30
percent, which could drop the price of a $250 modem to
$175 -- Broadcom CEO Henry Nicholas said.
Operators said the timing is a minor issue because no
matter when they deploy DOCSIS modems, there will be
strong consumer demand for them. |
