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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (353)	7/14/1998 11:24:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Robert, I don't know what the nature of your disagreement with Lee is but if it was caused by discussions on other threads I would like to ask, with all due respect, that you do not carry it onto this thread. This thread as functioned very well as a forum for some diverse viewpoints and given your stated history with currency trading I believe many who monitor the thread would be interested in your contribution. FWIW I don't believe Lee was dismissing Lindsey by labeling him a hawk. It is fairly common practice to use catch labels for Fed officials to keep track of their overall viewpoint. I know of several reputable analysts who publish a running tally of hawks, doves and swing votes on the Fed. My own personal view on the Fed at the moment is that they are nervously watching the conflicting influences of international and domestic pressures. It is pretty clear that if there were no concerns about the impact on Asia, the Fed would have tightened already. However despite the recent convenient interpretations of the Japanese election I believe we are still in for a very long workout of Asia's problems. As a result I believe the Fed is going to remain in a position where they feel constrained by the risk to Asia. I personally am not expecting any action to raise rates in the foreseeable future. I therefore am fairly bullish for US bonds and as a consequence belive the dollar will continue to strengthen against the yen.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (353)	7/14/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: Lee	Respond to of 3536

Robert, I'm guilty. My posts are somewhat nieve and I do not always support my arguments with documentation, as do others, who I greatly thank for their efforts. My profession is business planning and I am now an expert in a narrow subject. However, I am a formally trained economist and worked professionally in the field for about 10 years. I am just not as current as I was once. I am here to satiate my passion for the subject as well as to help my investment decisions. Unfortunately, in our last discussion I let myself fall into a discussion of whether or not you were a bear, when the point was to be a discussion on the economy. I disagree with you that there is reason to be concerned today. I asked you to provide timing, when would things (inflation, unemployment, income, stock prices) begin to head in less positive directions. You never answered. Actually, I thought I provided ample evidence to the fact (and concurred with you) that inflation is a concern, esp in labor markets. It is just that most other stuff is in ample supply at the moment and I am perhaps too caught up in the "what about Asia" argument. To raise rates would cause an inverted yield curve that usually results in a recession here in the US. To thwart US demand from the world economy at this point in time would not be a smart move. That is my opinion. I prefer the Fed's stance, and Lindsey's, by the way. Any manner the Fed can use to moderate the general public's response to this economy is welcome. Moreover, part of the inflation equation is expected inflation, and the Fed does try to manage this too. Robert, my apology for nieve posts. I did not intend to "summarily dismiss" anyone's ideas. Sorry you took it that way. Regards, Lee