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Biotech / Medical : SANGUINE CORP. (SGNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ColleenB who wrote (3158)	7/14/1998 12:38:00 PM
From: xbrent	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5402

17 buys in a row, approx 60,000 shares!

To: ColleenB who wrote (3158)	7/14/1998 1:08:00 PM
From: dwlima	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5402

<minor mistake previously> As a management consultant and a person who has done corporate valuations, my reasoning for holding SGNC (through thick and thin- barring no disturbing news) is the following. as i have no way of conducting a complete and sophisticated valuation on SGNC- i use the following back of the envelope approach. 3 scenarios (assuming no equity or debt issues and that if they do issue debt or equity that it does increase sales or market share to an amount commensurate to cover the debt expense or not dilute the equity): Low: assume a 2% chance of product success and a 3% market share (of the $20B market)- SGNC would be worth $12M or 60-cents per share. Mid: 5% chance of success and 5% market share -$50M or $2.50 High: 10% chance of success and 10% market share- $200M or $10 per share. and finally, we must realize that some day- the probabiliy of success will be 0 or 100%. in that case, in the mid range, SGNC is worth 5% of market share or $1B or $50 per share. so, i think that the batelle funding puts in at least in the low range of 50-cents (i think we are safe here and have a good possibility of seeing some major appreciation). at $2 or more over the next several months- the more risk-adverse people should sell. Of course, each piece of verified news will need to be evaluated. Well, there was a lot of talk about valuations- here you go. not very sophisticated, but it gives me a better idea of where we may go. dwlima