Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary C who wrote (6825)	7/14/1998 3:30:00 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

My reason is both of the above,Cary:) If I were to get a 3.75 order filled I then would feel I am in the driver's seat regards my final decision----which be any of actually 3 choices1)sell all at breakeven 2)keep all and hold for 8 target or more 3)sell initial position at small profit for other opportunities and keep the averaged down position. I do believe in the AIRM story,and what ever my decision will not because I don't believe in it--Good luck,Max

To: Cary C who wrote (6825)	7/15/1998 3:19:00 AM
From: Phil Jacobson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29382

Cary, et al - Greetings! Hope everyone on the thread is doing well in the market these days; I can't follow too closely anymore but I'm happy that June and July have given back a lot of what was lost in April and May. I find that not spending a lot of time overanalyzing my positions has helped me focus much better on my overall strategy. I'm afraid that a few months ago I was far too involved, and ended up doing day trading grounded in a philosophy based in fundamental analysis, which makes no sense at all. Anyway Cary, got your ICQ note on CMDL and thought I'd post a response here. I hadn't seen the news on the purchase of Array until your note. Thought the way I'd address the question on IP telephony and whether CMDL revenue will increase as a result of the acq by commenting on parts of the press release and statements made by CMDL's CEO. I've placed the press release detail in italics and commented below each part. Comdial gains ownership of all intellectual property associated with Array's Internet telephony products and related assets. Certain key design engineers have signed employment contracts and will be relocating to new Comdial offices to be established in Northern Virginia' s high technology corridor in 1999. This is excellent news. There is a huge pool of telephony and Internet talent in the corridor between Washington and Dulles Airport (everything is here from equipment to services in all aspects of communications, plus AOL, UUNet, and PSINet on the Internet side). At AGIS (where I work) we are also creating a new office in that corridor because it's so much easier to do recruiting and do business with potential partners and strategic vendors. Which is great for me since I live in that corridor (just a few blocks from AOL!) Formed in 1996, Array produces and markets VoIPgate IP telephony gateway software to Internet Service Providers (ISPs) in Europe and Canada. More information about Array Telecom can be found on the World Wide Web at telecom.array.ca. William G. Mustain, Comdial President and CEO, said "This acquisition squarely positions Comdial in the fastest growing segments of the IP telephony market - enterprise voice and fax over Intranets and gateway software for next generation telephone companies. Great news that this is the focus of Array. IP Telephony takes many forms. As heavy Internet users the use we hear the most about is voice over IP using the Internet to eliminate the cost of long distance telephone calls. While there's a model for that (IDTC) there are still a lot of questions about the ability for the Internet to carry voice traffic with the quality that people expect. I think it's improving but the doubts are solid. The more strategic and long term, most lucrative play is to utilize IP as a packet protocol on corporate intranets and virtual private networks to pass internal voice traffic, plus use those networks and the Internet itself to pass traffic that is non-real time in nature, like faxes and paging. The market for these corporate services is expected to grow at extremely rapid rates because: o IP technology is a de facto standard, is ubiquitous, and is the only viable vehicle now and in the forseeable future for passing traffic economically between the public Internet and private networks. o Corporate intranets and extranets are becoming required functions for communications and commerce in the leading tier of corporations, and they will be followed by everyone else within about 2 years, including CMDL's core base of small and medium size businesses. o Quality of voice and related traffic over IP is excellent when the medium is controlled by a single entity, as it is with an intranet or VPN. o Cost of passing voice over IP is as little as 5% of the cost of using a voice network (routers instead of switches, packets instead of circuits). But that's just the beginning of the story. The enduring user benefits of IP telephony will come from Comdial software applications such as unified messaging, collaborative work-groups, and e-commerce. It is the Company's belief that IP telephony holds significant promise for future growth and it is in the interest of the shareholders that Comdial control development of this core technology." I absolutely agree. The greatest benefits are going to be in the areas described in the above paragraph, which will almost all take place on corporate networks and extranets, not the public internet. It definitely makes sense for CMDL to buy into this technology now and grow it with the market, and create leading edge products, otherwise they will have to buy and resell them later at much higher prices and not be as easily able to target their own segments with specific products. The risk to the plan is not whether the need for this talent will exist, it's whether the people they've picked are really capable of participating on the leading edge of developing the necessary technology. There are billions being spent at Lucent and others on research and this is a well targeted area. If CMDL's new people can't keep up with LU the acq won't work and CMDL will have to buy solutions from LU (for example), add some customization, and resell them. In reality CMDL could still benefit even then since LU will probably focus on big general solutions upon which CMDL could then use Array to add significant added value and customization for actual end users. Hope this helps! Phil PS - GO EGGS! $50 by the time I do another post! (LOL) Actually of everything I have, the ones doing the best BY FAR are the large caps and high price stocks I bought in March - LU, AOL, CSCO, even WPO. Don't even ask about the internet stocks I've sold - MSPG at 68, AMZN at $90 BEFORE the split. XCIT, LCOS, CMGI, etc. I openly admit my play on EGGS is based on sheer jealousy for those who held on to these things over the last several months and can now choose between that 12 bedroom Tudor, a second home in Hana (HI), or retirement at 40.