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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (5321)	7/14/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Peter, very helpful, thanks! Thinking more about targets, 10x or greater in 3 years is really a lottery ticket ... with concommitant risk. Maybe looking for the potential to do 5x in 3 years or 10x in 5 years would be more realistic ... to get a wider range of stronger companies ... still requires a ton of analysis and insight though. I wonder if we could do this sifting process on a thread like this? just musing ... Peter

To: Biomaven who wrote (5321)	7/15/1998 7:10:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 9719

Andreas, Tom, Peter, I'm finally getting to my point ... phew! : ) ok. I believe it's impossible for an individual investor to come up with an well-constructed portfolio of biotechs. It's just too hard to do. The available information sources that putatively help you pick stocks are too flawed. And doing it yourself is physically impossible. There's not enough hours in a day. I think it's impossible theoretically. But look at the data empirically. Who do you know of that appears to be a worldclass biotech investor? Maybe Mark Lampert? Maybe one or two Wall Street analysts, if that? Any newsletter writers ... I don't know of one. People who post on internet boards like SI? Maybe there's half a dozen that are really top notch ... but that really have this nailed? Maybe a couple? Maybe none? Yet I believe this is a doable task. In technology, there are hundreds, thousands, maybe tens of thousands of astute investors with intelligently constructed portfolios. Biotech investing is more difficult by a couple of factors, but there still has to be a way of doing it. Here's my thought for a start. Is there a way we can help each other do something we can't do on our own? ... Here's the tasks: 1 - Sifting the universe I need short hand way of quickly jumping through the 300 biotechs to identify my hit list to evaluate. To do that, I need a short description, assessment of risks and potential, and a qualified opinion. I need a place to go where I can see the universe of companies, and spend no more than 5 minutes to decide whether I want to look further. Among the people that follow threads like this, there's that type of information ... but I don't know how to access it. Any ideas? 2 - Due diligence I don't have 20-40 hours per company to do the research necessary to understand and evaluate the story of each of my hit list of 20-30 companies ... but I do have 2-4 hours per company. But 2-4 hours doesn't cut it with current information sources. No way I can understand a company well enough ... unless it's a cut-bait decision. However, there are folks who follow threads like this who have put in the heavy lifting ... the exhaustive hours of research (I'm assuming they've used those hours well, and some have ... most haven't). Can a Peter Suzman give me a road map, based on his research, for say Sepracor. e.g., Peter, could you tell me: - read these SI posts, - read these analyst reports, - understand the following issues from the 10k and these other documents, - come up with your own opinion on the following issues that appear to be most important to risk and value of the company - watch the following developments both inside and outside the company, which will impact the risk and value either negatively or positively. A roadmap I could follow for 2-4 hours, say, and come up with an independent, informed opinion whether to buy or not ... and a set of issues to watch going forward. Guys, there's got to be a better way. Maybe we can help each other do something that I firmly believe is currently beyond the capacity of the average intelligent informed investor, which is constructing a well-chosed portfolio of biotech stocks ... there's got to be a way we can do this. Peter p.s., btw, I think this applies regardless whether we're in a bear market or a bull market for biotech stocks.