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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (1057)	7/14/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

In addition to G, look at AFS. Lots of ominous looking possible double tops out there. Small caps all look nasty. I'm looking for a couple more weeks of this crash-up by the large caps, and then it starts. A fall back to 8600 should be the intial target and after a small rally that fails, we should see a further fall to 7500 where we should base till Oct, then......... BYE BYE! (all the while interest rates should continue to rise and the dollar fall... while Au coincidently rises :) -Lucretius

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (1057)	7/14/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: Thean	Respond to of 14427

Papaya, did the corel die this year? Ten years ago I was snockering near an South China Sea island off Malaysia coast and the corels were being attacked by the starfish. Similar phenomenon was observed in the Great Barrier Reef as well. Don't remember if that was caused by the El/la nino/nina then but the water temperature was unusal during that time as well. Look like we may get a follow through tomorrow morning with a gap up. That will be good but if this thing become sustainable by late afternoon, it means the shorts are taking notice and exiting. This could be one of the more violent upmove as seen in many times past. Too bad my DO did not get filled near the end of the day. SDC may present similar opportunity for a deepwater driller. I would buy VRC, DO, EVI and NE here and stay away from the shallow water drillers and definitely the land drillers. A 10% bounce would be very good, and that would bring OSX to low 90's. I'm not looking any further out than that as oil price may hiccup again when the July OPEC production cut will be known towards the end of the month. At this point I think we have a possibility of a bottom. Knowing where this market has behaved lately, it is looking out at least 3 months. Take the semi for example. Take MU for example. It dropped from $33 to $20 in about a month. When the sentiment was the worst, it made a quiet transition and kept tempting the shorts all the way to now where it is about $30, all less than one month! The drillers can do this as we have seen them do this in the past and they will do this again. A deteriorating fundamentals, here dayrate, can cause damage only so much. Beyond that level, it becomes too speculative to bet on further decline. Afterall the earnings are still positive and the companies are trading near their (historical?) low PE's. Knowing traders, they really have not much to gain if the price goes straight up or down. In this days of the mo-mo, a choppy trend with plenty of longs and shorts is the best scenario for profit. I know this first hand. Having said all that, I would take my profit on the first sign of real weakness tomorrow should it occurs.