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Technology Stocks : SDRC - Structural Dynamics Research Corp. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Fraschetti who wrote (813)	7/15/1998 1:08:00 AM
From: Jerry Rush	Respond to of 946

<< So is this a good price to by in? >> ....Historically, yes. << Can they turn earnings around? >> ...The lack of confidence in this is why the price is in the 15s. Personally, I think they will get growth back on target. But those targets are now lower. Do your evaluation figures with something between, oh, say 85-cents and a dollar EPS for this calendar year. And use something like $1.10 to 1.25 for 1999 earnings. Then if you like the valuations with those numbers, go ahead and buy. If you don't, stay away. These are just my opinions. And I've been dead wrong on this one, so my opinions aren't worth much. If you buy, welcome aboard. But also please understand that virtually everyone on the thread is now a loser. So our attitudes may be a little raw. Jerry

To: Fred Fraschetti who wrote (813)	7/15/1998 4:46:00 AM
From: William B. Kohn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 946

I am still subject to an order to keep quiet about SDRC from my employer on issues where my inside the market position gives me information that perhaps is not in the general public. I would suggest that if the CAD/CAM market is a place where you have to invest then use the following rules. 1. Nothing in this market is long term. 2. Number 1 in anything is only a few years long. My feelings from generally available information is that the market SDRC plays in is broken up into four discrete markets: CAD CAM PDM Analysis Each of these markets are then broken into two major categories stand-alone/compatible software solutions and integrated software solutions. SDRC is clearly an integrated solution. If you don't want to use SDRC MasterSeries foundation than its CAM and Analysis will not appeal to you and you probably won't want their PDM either. Integrated solutions offer the benefits of a single code base but at the penalty of usually being less than ideal in any one area. As such SDRC can be vastly more effective in a company like Ford than they can at Joe's Tool and Die. The big deals come up once every ten years. The small deals come up thousands of times every day. PTC made their money via the latter approach, as did Autocad. CATIA, Unigraphics, and SDRC made their money the former way. Now CATIA is paired with a stabilizing factor like SolidWorks, Unigraphics has SolidEdge for stabilization (and was closer to the PTC sales model anyway), Autodesk has Mechanical Desktop, and SDRC has Artisan. This stand alone market requires a good code base, a good reseller organization, and good code, and good marketing. I ask you to research here because I can't comment today on these areas. PDM is interesting and perhaps the savior to SDRC's business model. If CATIA and PTC faulter, then SDRC will be a major home run for everyone here (except me). I know they are in a lead position. BUT the show isn't over and the lead in this arena has changed hands at least four times so far. SDRC is not the General Motors of PDM. Bill Kohn I do believe that SDRC can be a money maker for anyone who wishes to use it as a trading vehicle. The chances for it to go to 22 before 10 are very good. I would not under any circumstances buy and hold this stock (or any CAD/CAM/PDM) for ten years.