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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (10419)	7/15/1998 8:54:00 AM
From: llamaphlegm	Respond to of 164684

Glenn: I'm a dolt and have misplaced the scrap of paper I jotted your email on (and couldn't locate the post -- you have so many! -- in which you noted it). One more time and my apologies (I'll write tonite). FYI from TMF. Post New Post Reply << Prev Next >> Subject: Thumbs Down Number: of 4507 Author: TMFCheeze read profile \| read interview Date: 7/15/98 3:26 AM (ET) The Los Angeles Times launched a new investing column in their Tuesday edition... it's a sort of a Siskel-and-Ebert approach to stock analysis. Two of the Times staff analysts (James Peltz and Michael Hiltzik) briefly discuss some stocks, and then rate it either Buy or Don't Buy. Guess which stock they decided to review first? ;-) Both rate Amazon.com a "Don't Buy." Unfortunately, their analysis is pretty superficial. That's not to say they're wrong -- it's just that they trot out the same tired laundry list of objections... it's all rather perfunctory, and with little new insight. The bears who post in this folder do a much better job of arguing the downside than these guys do. Step aside, newsprint -- cyberspace rules. You can read this article on the L.A. Times shovelware site, and come to your own conclusions. That's at: latimes.com; Pithy quote: <<< Mike: I wouldn't get within 100 miles of this stock. Internet stocks are volatile because no one has any benchmark by which to judge the companies' business plans. So they can be $50 today and $90 tomorrow--and $20 the day after that. Exciting, yes, but nobody would mistake it for responsible investing. Jim: I'm sure some day-traders have made a killing with this stock's gyrations. But most of us can't sit around our PCs buying Amazon and selling it an hour later. We have lives. And Amazon isn't the next Microsoft. So if you own Amazon and you've made a few bucks, don't be greedy. Get out. >>> Didn't Gene and Roger have the exact same exchange when they reviewed "Waterworld"? Cheeze

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (10419)	7/15/1998 8:55:00 AM
From: UFGator93	Respond to of 164684

OFF TOPIC - Another possible short If anyone else is watching for other shorting ideas, check out ITEX. It rose from as low as 1 and change yesterday to around 6. Should gap up this morning and possibly drop from there. I don't hold any position in ITEX but am thinking about shorting this AM. Damon

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (10419)	7/15/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Glen, I posting this from TMF. This Couch is a CPA who's opinions I've come to respect. He's not an Amzn bull, but he is pointing out Amzn's wonderful cash flow, which, to be honest, I had not taken into account when I scrutinized their business model. < Taffy asks: What I'd like to know from both of you is, Amzn's cash flow so wonderful and unique? Yes it's wonderful, but I'm not sure if it's unique. Let me explain why it's so good. Day 1 - Collect $100 from a customer #1 Day 2 - Spend $100 on advertising Day 3 - Collect $100 from customer #2 (who saw the ad on Day 2) Day 4 - Spend $100 on advertising Day 5 thru 44 - See days 1 thru 4 Day 45 - Pay distributor $80 for books for customer #1 Looks like a pretty good deal, huh? This is what Dell is doing (although I'm not sure they have the generous credit terms of Amazon), and what the rest of the computer industry is fighting for. Most companies have the same thing happening, but in reverse: Day 1 - Receive inventory from distributor Day 30 - Pay distributor Day 31 - Sell inventory Day 60 - Collect receivable from customer This is why car dealers need to take bridge loans to finance their inventory. When you carry limited inventory, it acts like an interest-free loan. Remember, this is just timing. The total cash generated by two companies may be the same, but the timing allows one company an interest-free loan, while the other has to borrow (or use funds that could be invested in the business or other businesses). When you are growing at the rate Amazon is, this is significant. It virtually ensures that there will be cash around to pay for all these "branding activities". When you are in a growth business, the name of the game is cash flow, cash flow, cash flow. Understand? CouchPoDATO Playing the float, but not quite like AMZN>