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To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (1073)	7/15/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

Lucretius; whoaaa Nellie; I apologize. However, you guys over here are wound way tooo tight; no sense of humor ? I honestly meant my comments in good spirited jest. Admittedly, a bit over exuberant. If you want a public apology - You got it... I read your posts before participating on the ''SD'' thread. I have great respect for your thought process, while I don't allways agree... However; I don't think I'm wrong on my generalization of you being a ''bear'' on the drillers and the DOW & ''dissing''my buddy - JJC, was just more than I could take .... <VBG>. My comments were made to you, because I thought not only did you not take yourself or the markets too seriously, but that you were secure enough in your philosophy to endure a little over exuberance from a little 'ole ''permabull'... My comments were NOT meant to be mean spirited in any way, shape or form; again I apologize. If you want a public apology;...here it us. Not looking for a dispute - You can hold your own...I have great respect for your comments & posts from the past. Hey, if they can kid Jimmie Rodgers on CNBC; certainly the '' Goldbug'' Luc, can take a little huh ? Sorry, I disrupted the thread people. My apologies; Peace, Slider

To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (1073)	7/15/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14427

Mike, What we saw today is a glimpse of panic buying toward the close on selected drillers. That is a clear sign the shorts are closing out. Yesterday the drillers rallied because of the anticipation of good API number which was the excuse to trigger the technical rebound. Today they rallied because the API number came through and oil responded favorably. Tomorrow morning will be either: 1) Gap up and likely early strength if DO and EVI did not disappoint. All they need to do is to meet expectation, even miss by 1 cent. Then we may see some selling after an early morning top but prices will zig-zag for most of the day. The direction towards the end of the day will depend on oil prices and the overall market. the overall market is likely to be strong again tomorrow. Oil needs to stay above $14.80 and preferably breaks into $15. If oil breaks into $15, more power to the rally. 2) Open where they closed today but the sellers come in after that if DO and EVI warn of tough environment going into 2H. Profit taking is very tempting here for the traders and they will reverse course quickly if there are signs of weakness developing. Overall, I think we are not going to revisit the low's seen on Monday until after next Tuesday, when another highly anticipated API number is released. If the drillers rally too much between now and Monday, the API number may be an excuse for profit taking. Need to keep in mind the difference between a technical rebound and a genuine reversal. For technical rebound, all OSX needs to do is to unable to close above 88 (or somewhere near it since that level was the previous support) for 2 consecutive days. For a genuine reversal, oil needs to make a strong move. Strong API numbers will help, news on OPEC cutting taking effect will be good. Sign of economic bottom in Asia will be good. Because of all these factors and probably more, one has keep a trading attitude on the drillers as these conditions are likely to be volatile and can change from day to day. I have no problem using stop orders for both buy and sell. No one says being conservative (by emphasizing on capital preservation) will make less money even if the drillers keep going up. Been there, done that, many times over. Therefore, I think the best scenario for selling August calls is to wait till this thing confirms that we only have a technical rebound here and not a true reversal. Now, you can sell in the money July calls just for downside protection till Friday if you want but I would rather just place a stop for that. Doc - Just to show why taking a loss, even if it is very painful, is really good. Took a sizeable loss yesterday on that damn @#$%#$@. Used the proceed to go long FGII and VRC (still have it) and here I'm, 3/4 of my loss recoverd in a day.