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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Chanoux who wrote (1527)	7/15/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: Todd D. Wiener	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3813

Dave- I think that the rally today was a dead-cat bounce from oversold levels. It spread throughout the chip sector. But based on the run-up on high volume for NVLS, and seeing what appeared to be selling into strength by institutions, I think that NVLS is a a near-term top. If you look at the chart, the downtrend intersects $36-38. The stock ran up due to naive retail buying, momentum buying, and market makers who seem to be raising the price to allow selling at higher prices. Based on my understanding of the lousy fundamentals, I cannot see how the stock won't sell off before week's end. A pre-earnings run-up usually leaves little room for upside surprises, and a negative 2nd half outlook by Hill tomorrow could return the stock to its lows. Based on these beliefs, I have been buying puts on AMAT, NVLS and several other equips. Obviously, I like NVLS and AMAT, especially for the long-term, but I don't see any upside for the rest of the year. Good luck, though. Todd

To: Dave Chanoux who wrote (1527)	7/15/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: David Lawrence	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3813

For clarification, Squawk Box is the morning segment on CNBC that runs from 8:00 AM until 10:00 AM EDT (1&frac12 hours before and &frac12 hour after the market open). It's hosted by Mark Haynes, with a supporting cast of Joe Kernan, David Fabre(?), Maria from the exchange floor, the girl that does the capital markets segment (can't remember her name), and a guest analyst or fund manager. One of the better daily segments on CNBC, in my opinion. Good information with a fair amount of dry humor.