To: yosi s who wrote (1013 ) 7/16/1998 1:50:00 AM From: Ariella Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1491
To all: Someone who does not post publicly on this thread has sent me a very interesting private message, wondering if this week's TIME note on tamoxifen might be partially responsible for the weakness in the stock price. The note is interesting in two respects. First, it raises a real possibility for the softness in trading. Second, by chasing down the referenced note, I find out how much gets lost in translation when medical journals are "dumbed down" for the general public (us) to read. Here is the TIME news brief: pathfinder.com : <<July 20th edition TIME magazine: BAD NEWS ON BREAST CANCER Tamoxifen, used to treat breast cancer, made headlines in April when a study suggested it could also prevent the disease. But this week, two European studies showed no proof of prevention, casting doubt on earlier hopes. The studies differed in duration (the U.S. study was shorter) and in participants (one European study included low-risk women). >> NewScientist, which I have referenced previously in connection with reports on marijuana-derived drugs, prints the news this way:newscientist.com newswire <<MIXED MESSAGES Does the drug tamoxifen prevent breast cancer in women at high risk of contracting the disease? Now that two European studies have cast doubts on positive results from an earlier American trial, doctors seem further than ever from the answer. Researchers at the Royal Marsden Hospital in London and the European Institute of Oncology in Milan report in The Lancet (vol 352, p 93 and p 98) that tamoxifen performs no better as a preventive medicine than does a placebo. In May, however, the larger American Breast Cancer Prevention Trial was stopped when evidence emerged of a 45 per cent cut in breast cancer incidence among women given tamoxifen. >> Both briefs leave this reader with the feeling that tamoxifen is not a good drug and that something was wrong with the American study if it had to be stopped. Actually, both briefs stem from the July 11 article in the prestigious medical journal LANCET. thelancet.com This is definitely worth a read if you are a serious PARS investor. Its tone and conclusions seem rather opposite to those presented in the more popular press. For instance it asks the question if the two European studies (in Britain and in Italy) were too small to detect the difference seen in the American study (BCPT). It concludes that << the BCPT findings seem robust. They are internally consistent and, perhaps most convincingly, highly consistent with the 47% preventive effect of 5 years of tamoxifen found in the Early Breast Cancer Trialists Collaborative Group (EBCTCG) overview.>> It ends, however, with a warning that more clinical study is needed before tamoxifen is widely prescribed. So, while this news might have had something to do with the price weakness in PARS shares this week, I don't think our tamoxifen analog program should be consider devalued or derailed at all. Most likely nearer term questions about Alrex and Lotemax will determine the direction of the stock price until HU-211 info is released in the fall. --Ariella P.S. By the way, the American study was stopped short because such a definite improvement was found in women who used tamoxifen that the scientists involved did not think it ethical to withhold the drug from the groups assigned to placebo.