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To: Q. who wrote (6297)	7/15/1998 5:21:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 10921

While I fully agree that times have been, are and will likely remain very tough for the next year, I suspect that the timing of SemiCon West may also be a factor influencing when BToB numbers get reported. First this report is frequently delayed even in good times. Second, if the choice is between preparing for the most major technology marketing event in North America (for Semi Equipment) and preparing a report on the past month for SEMI, I suspect I know where most CEOs will place emphasis. FWIW, Ian

To: Q. who wrote (6297)	7/16/1998 7:36:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

1) The quote about the btb being late because of employee layoffs was reported to come directly from SEMI. I cannot report my source, as I read a lot of material, but I wouldn't have repeated it without a caveat if it hadn't been reasonably trustworthy, i.e. coming from a commercial news organization. Yes, it's sort of mind-boggling! I hope it is not being used as an excuse to delay the bad news during Semicon. 2) Personally, I'm going to pay more attention to the total bookings number reported, rather than the actual btb ratio. 3) One company that is really cash-strapped that might bear a look is IPEC. It has been one of my personal "most likely to fold" companies due to the leveraged effect of its high debt/equity during the downturn, combined with its reported loss of market share to AMAT and, to a degree, SFAM. However, it is one of the companies in with Novellus in the "total package" copper technology presentation at Semicon: Novellus, IPEC, and Lam (another co. that can use a boost). IPEC has been beaten down severely (and with good reason), but its positioning itself with Novellus is an outstanding management move. Semitool is possibly in a world of hurt right now, due to the Novellus copper package. While it seems Semitool has at least some claim to the best copper deposition system available (efficiency, size, etc.), it really dropped the ball on this one. This might be an Apple/MSFT situation, where the best technology is going to lose the market due to superior compatability breadth from a somewhat inferior competitor.