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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (18939)	7/15/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Mohan-- off topic Nice to hear from you after a very long time.I tell you it is the most difficult thing to convince my ownself on trading on the long side of the market at these levels. I just don't do things if I am not convinced about the direction. One lesson I learnt thru hard way was never stand in front of the market it bulldozes you. market is about levels one needs to know them well, it is about supports and resistances. It is not about long or short market gives you a cue and if you can add various signal more often than not you will find yourselve on the right side. I don't think Abby Cohen is an 'idiot'. She has the guts and courage to point the right direction. The 'inflation' 'deflation' and 'ice age' never came, I see problems in China, ASEA and may be Japan but I analyse them and try to make a trade out of them like on Russia at 271 I called it a bottom and wrote that we will possilby hold that support. I was watchng that level carefully because I knew behind this selling lies great security based selling in continental Europe and I was all prepared to short below 1921. We are right here at 9200 nearly 2300 points higher when I made on 28th Oct at 11.00 in the morning the decision to go long and add up.this is one heck of a move and if I would miss it I would be the biggest stubborn character ( I will avoid calling 'idiot' as it is little impolite).gggg May be we see a 1929 type of event and we may be told 'we told you so' but rest assure that market screams whichever side it takes and I tell you until fundamentals do not change we will see this market trading betwen higher bands. Bring inflation and stagnation back and this market will collapse to any support 'you' decide. Markets are never expensive or cheap they are about revenues and income growth if visibility is good momentum creates enough demand, I tell you by your logic I can successfully argue that market is even expensive at 5500. Me being a 'big picture man' will invite you to following- Look at US GDP and GNP growth rate- bea.doc.gov How much GDP has moved from 1995 to 1997? For me GDP is cash flow of a country, to determine 'net assets or worth' of a country one can decide on a multiple. For a country like US that can be 70 times its GDP for Russia it may be 5 times GDP. It is the question of potential of a country similarly INTC and MSFT can trade at much higher multiples (not that I am arguing in favor of yahoo type hype) but the 5 to 10 or 15 times rev for a company that has hold on a proprietry product is possible. Now this is INTC- rev growth since 1992-98 wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com This is MSFT rev growth-since 1992-98 wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com wsrn.com To compare GDP size and MSFT market cap is comparing apples with oranges. I agree that this company is selling at very high multiples and needs a bit of cooling down- it is little ahead of itself but anytime it drops to 85 $ it is a great buy because the anticipated 300 million new internet connections in 5 years would need 300 million new computers and also software that goes along, the components and platform will be all WINTEL- the routers will be CSCO -- the choice is all yours, either be a part of this global experience or keep enjoying the action from the fence. Market at 980 on SPX will look great but we missed it at SPX 845 on 28th Oct 1998.It was I remember destined for 5500, may be we go back to 980 one of these days but the big collapse never came and we are right up here with my 'bhumbo 2' in progress. For me 1885 on composite is signal of a drift to much lower levels in the interim we have many other levels so is 1118 1140 levels on SPX or 8910 or 9050- so if keep our trading activity range bound we are able to pick the timing to short or go long. For me when market tells me to go short I go short that is the bottom line, I am not in love with long or a short trade it is the market which tells me what to do. Perperual debates are good 'coffee shop' Kahuna type discussions. take care-- hope to see you soon--anyway I salute your courage to stay out of this market.