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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (17106)	7/15/1998 8:33:00 PM
From: Tiley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69358

Anindo, I agree that stock prices will start rallying some time before the fundamental picture for the sector (semis and semi-equips) clears up. Right now, most industry analysts and insiders do not expect a significant uptick till mid-99 (earliest) and even that depends to a large extent on US showing continued growth, Europe continuing and Asia recovering - in other words uptick in the business next year is not certain right now. So the question then becomes, are you willing to buy into these stocks today with these uncertainties. Even though the downside may be small at these prices, you could end up with dead money for 6 months - a year. Besides, I believe, there are other secular reasons which will keep chip and chip equipment margins under pressure for longer than most analysts expect. In my opinion, the best time to take a risk on these sectors (if at all) would be in Nov-Dec after tax loss selling. A better play might be to trade the volatility but to stay away from investing till the fundamentals are on your side. In general though, I would think when the lagging sectors start showing strength and the leading sectors slow down, we might be closer to the end of the current run than the beginning - perhaps Clint can comment on this (market dynamics are definitely his expertise), Later, - MJ