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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rick Bullotta who wrote (20706)7/15/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: gamesmistress  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 31646
 
Embedded Systems at Cargill

This is a report on a session at a Y2K conference about the method Cargill has developed to do I&A on embedded systems in small to medium size plants. I am posting here the section which mentions TAVA, and including a link to the entire report, which is quite long but very interesting.

Year2000.com Announcement List, Special Mailing,
July 15, 1998

by Jon Huntress

When you look at the numbers -- trillions of lines of computer code, billions of embedded chips and millions of dollars to find and fix everything, it is easy to get depressed, come to the conclusion that there is no way out, and that the gloom and doomers are right. Society as we know it is going into the toilet, or I should say the outhouse, because the toilets won't work anymore because the pumps that move the water to the water towers will stop working because of the embedded chips on the automatic controls and valves. That's what a guy at the next table told me. How many of you out there remember the expression, "rougher than a cob?"

This was in my mind when I attended a session put on by Philip Hannay of the Cargill Company. The Cargill Company started in Iowa, just like I did, and they are well known for agricultural products and services. They would certainly benefit if it became necessary to go back to the time when a box full of corn cobs was a necessary accessory to every outhouse.

But Philip was telling the audience a different story. He said that while the problem was real, it wasn't all that bad. In the plant environment, many of the embedded system problems are minor if known about in advance, solutions are straightforward, work-arounds can save time and money, and that "wait and see" for non-critical applications is an option. A consultant in front of me was getting visibly upset at those conclusions. What Philip was recommending, he whispered to me, was too loose, too unstructured, too fast, to deal with the embedded systems most factories have.

I was coming to a different conclusion. I think Philip Hannay is a genius. So I warn you, there will be wide differences of opinion on the embedded systems assessment, inventory and remediation techniques recommended by Hannay. In a future report I will contrast this with TAVA's approach to the same problem with some major companies. They are quite different, and yet Ken Owen of TAVA brought Mr. Hanney to the conference, introduced him and sat behind him for the presentation. During the talk, Mr. Hanney told everyone to put off calling the big consulting companies until they had completed their own inventory and made their own plan. This is another case of people working together for the good of everyone, even though it seems to be counter to their own interests. TAVA needs to be congratulated for their forward thinking and ecumenical attitude. There are differences that make the both approaches worthwhile, but the Cargill approach hasn't been presented as a complete plan before.

Link to complete article:
Message 5210357



To: Rick Bullotta who wrote (20706)7/16/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: Alastair McIntosh  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31646
 
Rick, thank you for your response. I read and consider your posts carefully as you appear to be this boards most knowledgeable and reasoned poster for the long side.

You are saying that if TAVA executes perfectly they should be able to sustain a share price in the high single digits.

I believe that their billings will drop substantially. It appears that they are currently billing out relatively low skilled technicians as engineers at inflated rates. (Not a good way to build long term relationships) Supply and demand in their core business will not permit this to continue. As Y2K work slows they will be left with a large number of bodies that they will have to either get rid of or bill out at very competitive rates.

Shrinking revenues and margins at 1/2 those of Y2K work combined with current cash flow problems and share dilution does not bode well for the future.

The only reason to buy TAVA now is the hope that the "heat of the Y2K frenzy" runs the price to the high teens.

Al

P.S. In Canada the professional associations are very protective of the use of the term "engineer". They prosecute those that use the term without professional registration. Is it the situation the same in the USA?