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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (518)7/16/1998 9:07:00 PM
From: porcupine --''''>  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1722
 
"GM's labor productivity lags industry"

By Ben Klayman
DETROIT, July 15 (Reuters) - If General Motors Corp.'s
work force was as productive as competitor Ford Motor
Co.'s , it could save about $3 billion a year or operate
with 38,000 fewer hourly workers, according to a study released
on Wednesday by a leading automotive consulting firm.
GM, crippled by strikes at two parts plants in Flint,
Mich., has become more efficient at its assembly, stamping and
powertrain plants, but still lags its U.S. rivals, said Ronald
Harbour, president of Harbour & Associates Inc. in Troy, Mich.
And Japanese automakers Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. <7201.T>, Toyota
Motor Corp. <7203.T> and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. <7267.T> still
set most productivity standards.
"As they beat each other up in Flint, those three (Japanese
automakers) are working hard to expand and get better," Harbour
said during a news conference at a downtown Detroit hotel.
"Who's really losing here? GM is losing, the UAW is losing; so
what happens is Americans lose."
Harbour said the problems are ultimately GM's
responsibilities, although the United Auto Workers share some
responsibility. The strikes have cost GM $1.2 billion already
and the losses have begun mounting again now the automaker has
returned from a two-week summer shutdown.
The study, based on statistics compiled in U.S. plants last
year, comes at a sensitive time when GM is arguing it needs to
become more competitive to thrive in the U.S. automotive
market. The automaker wants to contract out work normally
performed by UAW-represented workers to lower-cost independent
suppliers and shrink its work force.
GM's U.S. work force includes 319,000 hourly workers, most
of whom are represented by the UAW.
The U.S automaker's productivity gap was even more
pronounced with Nissan, the industry's productivity leader. If
GM's workers operated at Nissan's level, it could save $4.4
billion a year or operate with 55,000 fewer hourly workers.
"Those are consistent with our internal studies," GM
spokesman Alan Adler said. "It does reinforce our competitive
disadvantage that we've been talking about these many weeks and
months. That penalty is $500 or $1,000 before we ever go to
market with our product."
However, Harbour, industry analysts and competitors were
quick to point out Nissan's numbers would not be near as
dominant if its product lineup and volume matched those of the
U.S. automakers.
"If Nissan had the same medium-duty trucks, F-Series trucks
and all the other vehicles we sell and build, then perhaps
their numbers wouldn't be quite as low as it is," said Bob
Transou, Ford's group vice president for manufacturing.
He said the $300-per-vehicle advantage Nissan had over Ford
in labor costs was canceled out because the No. 2 U.S.
automaker makes more profits per vehicle than Nissan does. "The
trade-off to me is really a no-brainer," Transou said. "I'd
take the Ford number any day."
The study estimated Ford led the U.S. industry last year
with pretax profits of $1,520 per vehicle, while Nissan only
made $301 per vehicle after four consecutive years of losses.
GM lost $104 per vehicle last year, but after accounting
for a $5 billion write-off, it would have made $825 a vehicle,
said James Harbour, chairman of the consulting firm. McDonald &
Co. analyst Greg Kagay said the difference from Ford's total
could be made up in marketing and distribution.
However, Kagay said the study showed the union's position
in the Flint strikes is tenuous at best.
"The plants on strike and the striking workers really don't
have much leverage," he said. "They're not like stars on a
baseball team saying, 'You're never going to make it to the
World Series without me.' These numbers really, really support
that. In fact, it's exactly the opposite."
The Flint Metal Center, which was struck by about 3,400
workers 41 days ago, received poor grades in the study for its
labor productivity. The stamping plant ranked 31st among 36
such facilities in the number of stamping hits per worker.
A hit represents each time a press stamps out a part such
as a hood or fender used in assembling a vehicle. Flint Metal's
hit rate trailed the industry leader -- Toyota's Georgetown,
Ky., plant -- by 78 percent, although it did finish ahead of
three other GM stamping plants.
GM's stamping plants operate with a bloated work force as
they averaged about three workers per hit, James Harbour said.
That compares to the best plants, which averaged one and a half
workers per hit. GM employs 29,000 hourly workers at its
stamping plants, he said.
Not all the news was bad for GM, however, as it improved
its performance in many areas, Ronald Harbour said. Stamping
plants improved the productivity of their equipment, and even
though GM's labor productivity still trails the industry it has
improved 17 percent since 1994.
The Harbour study showed Nissan led all automakers in the
United States, spending about 17 hours on each vehicle it
builds. Ford was the top performer among U.S. automakers at
less than 23 hours. GM and Chrysler Corp. trailed at
about 30 and 32 hours, respectively.
Toyota had the most efficient engine plant, while Ford was
the top U.S. automaker in that area, according to the study.
Ford also had the most efficient transmission plants.
((--Detroit Newsroom, 248-737-2525))



To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (518)7/17/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: DRM  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1722
 
<<What all the talk about the 80% decline in GM's profits ignored is that GM cut costs another $1 billion last quarter. GM's costs have nowhere to go but down, and it's competitiveness nowhere to go but up.>>

I think the present management is truely committed to change. The problem is the economy is just to strong .... and so the union doesn't feel the need to change (Ford and Chrysler both got their big concessions when they were both down on the mat and almost out). There still is a loooooonng way to go.

<< Far East ... Small GM sales but they were triple whammied with
currency devaluations.... Meanwhile GM continues investing heavily
in more than a half dozen locations.

My impression from the financial press is that, on balance, the local currency revenues stay there.>>

No currency to extract (no profit)... GM does not expect a profit in China for 15 to 20 years (reported in Wall Street Journal)... Currently I work international and have seen the payback of ALL of the projects go WAY OUT in time... But give GM credit ... the $ is strong and they are creating the most global auto company... In the long hall there will be profits.

<< In many plants 30%-40% of the workers are eligible to retire in the next 5 years.....

Right, and they are not going to be replaced. The estimated savings is in the neighborhood of $4 billion annually.>>

Got to disagree with this one... These people are ALL getting replaced minus any plants closed down or sold off (several parts plants are in the process). My point here is that the retirement fund is a big burden that will not go away until the transplants have been here long enough to have the same cost.... It's just a fact in American business .... Newly established companies have low to no retirement funding .... Old established companies have heavy loads. This is not true in most other countries where the retirement funding is government centralized (Europe ..except the Brits,Japan,Brazil etc.)

<<So, what's your view -- can GM and UAW forever resist the forces of economic rationalization that are reshaping everything else in the world?>>

GM upper management strongly committed to changing NAO (this problem doesn't exist in the other countries ... except a little bit at Opel). Many of the younger union members understand the score... The problem is the older UAW members who only know the old days ... I really don't know where this thing is going this time. It looks like this could be the BIG standoff. If GM gives in the stock will fall ... it they hang on too long things really get ugly ... GM needs to get this done to spin off Delphi automotive (put a PE of 12 on Delphi and see what price you think the GM stock would be worth .....)

The UAW has a warchest for this strike ($1B+) ... in the old days this was deleted quickly with the BIG walk-offs... Now they are smart and just strike 1 or 2 small plants .... The fund could last months if not years ..... As of July 1 GM has discontinued paying dental for the UAW members (the UAW then picks up this tab)...However, GM decided not to do this with the health care cost and continues national coverage ..... this saves the union warchest for more time..

But ... Buy at $66 is my motto .... Buy the way GM has stopped the stock buy back until strike is resolved.