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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Machaon who wrote (29886)	7/15/1998 10:54:00 PM
From: Joseph G.	Respond to of 132070

<<Any thoughts on when, or if, the party is going to be over?>> 4:01pm July 28, 1998 AD

To: Machaon who wrote (29886)	7/16/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

Bob, You have certainly hit the bulls eye on the US stock market bubble and the Japanese crisis. But too much money chasing assets always ends badly, and it doesn't usually wait until the money stops flowing. At some point, inflation creeps in. In fact, it already has in stock prices, bond prices, real estate prices, etc. As these factors build the wealth effect, there is eventually inflation in consumer goods, at least in the US, which is a consuming, debtor nation. However, the flow of money could stop in its tracks if Japan ever got real with interest rates. Conversely to what occurs in the US, a steep increase in Japanese rates would push their stock market and consumer spending up. So far, nobody wants to believe that. But it will happen after enough politicians get canned. The other thing that will stop the flow is the lousy earnings. All of the excuses for Intel and Compaq and their horrible quarters are being believed by those who want to believe, but the ranks of those who realize the emperor is buck naked are growing. My guess is another October crash, but this time it lasts. MB