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Technology Stocks : Alliance Semiconductor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patrick tang who wrote (3632)	7/16/1998 8:44:00 AM
From: MoonBrother	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9582

ALSC Short Term Moving Trend Analysis - My 2 Cents Up until couple days ago, we saw ALSC stabilized, and gradually restored upward trend. The price moved from 7/7's $3 to 7/13's $3-3/8, and volume was somewhat normal in 500k range +/- 200k. But last two days things were suddenly heated up. We saw big block trades thrown at both buy and sell sides, driving the price down to as low as $3, and to as high as $3-3/4. What's going on? My take is that there is a force on each side of the trading isle. On one hand, perhaps an institutional owner wanted to get out of ALSC before the earning figure comes out. On the other hand, there is at least another big guy who wants to establish a major position of ALSC at the bargain price. If this is the case that we are experiencing, then obviously in the end the winner among these two guys will determine ALSC's next move. So far, looks like the buying side has an up hand. Who could be the buyer? We know that the company is a buyer of 2mil shares. The question is if they were buying yesterday? If it is the company who is supporting the price, then this support could be short-lived,'cuz the company has only the limited resources. But then again, since the SEMI market has started the long over-due correction, the company's support may just be enough to hold on ALSC's slide until the real buyers are back. Again, looks like this is the case that's going on. What could be the next step? I think today's behavior could give us some hint. If the big volume continues today, say we reach 1mil+, then ALSC will break $4 today. Seems to me the seller(s) have been just about exhausted his portfolios, the late surge yesterday proved that the seller is almost done his business. If the big volume continues today, most possibly it comes from the big buyer(s), which will undoubtedly move up the price. Say if ALSC hits $4 today, can it hold on to the gain and close above this psychologically important level? Depends on how early and how decisive ALSC breaks $4. If we could break it in the first round of rush, say by 10:30am with a volume of >500k, and then we continue to broaden the gain by say up to $4-1/4 before noon, then we should have enough leeway for profit takings. Once people have reestablished confidence at $4 in late afternoon, I think another small upward move could drive ALSC to firmly above $4 at close. Let's see how it goes. Good luck! MB