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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekgk who wrote (21707)	7/16/1998 6:24:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 94695

tekgk .. I must admit I wasn't really sure just what you were asking about, and rather than prove myself ignorant, I chose silence and to defer to you. I think that I got the gist of what you had been asking. I call this liquidity flow. I agree totally that it is not a number, but rather a trend that would cause a rapid movement of liquidity away from our markets. For the last few days the yen seems to have broken out of the down channel that it had been in. If the yen just holds, then the down trend has been broken. I've noticed that the US bond reacts to almost every small tick in the value of the yen. That leads me to believe that the trillion dollar movement you refer to could take place very quickly. I think that it would be a cascade effect: Stocks and bonds drop so foreign investors trim back in US holdings which causes stocks and bonds to drop further which causes additional reductions in foreign liquidity etc.. All of which could take place in a matter of minuets. We are a long way from that point. However, it is worth keeping a close eye on... And small ticks are felt here also. anyway .. some thoughts Gersh