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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (21883)	7/16/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ramsey, i didn't mean tomorrow, i said "when Asia recovers" which won't be tomorrow, capiche? It is certain the fed will raise the moment it can to slow this pile of money coming in to our markets. Certain. The proverbial "sure thing." The only way for this to not occur, is if we slide into a recession while rates are this high, and Asia recovers. Such a scenario is what Greenspan is asking God for. God may be listening. Either way, a general slow down is what we beg for. This would ordinarily damage cap exp, of course. Soooo, all of us here are expecting an amat recovery that probably has to happen against the grain of a slowing economy. Not an easy scenario. plus y2k spending causing increased software spending but decreased hardware spending. My conclusion is that there is an enormous amount of noise to deal with, and all that will matter with amat will be Asia and dram stabilization.