Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: llamaphlegm who wrote (10638)	7/16/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: Tom D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Sorry, lp, I am too busy for that endeavor. Clearly the market valuation is disconnected from fundamentals at the present time. At the present time AMZN is being valued as a concept stock. Eventually it will be judged on fundamentals. The estimates about futures sales and revenues are therefore of interest, but too far away and speculative to be meaningful. You are requesting blind guesses... let's see, 5% of doemstic wine sales in 2003, 6% of domestic toy sales, 4% of videos, 6% of US book sales, 4% of music CD's, 1.7% of software sales, etc etc. AMZN may be uploading digital books and CD's for loyal customers in 2003. My point about the pig is that it is not a meaningful comparison to look at AMZN 1997 revenues when Q1 98 is over 30% greater than Q4 97. The statistics presented obfuscate more than they help anybody. Why not have a table under a pig which shows the BKS has 500 times as many stores as AMZN and therefore deserves a market cap 500 times greater? Tom

To: llamaphlegm who wrote (10638)	7/16/1998 6:18:00 PM
From: llamaphlegm	Respond to of 164684

Jul 15, 1998 Pickin' and A Grinnin' by SI Guru Michael Burke To get The Internet Financial Connection newsletter e-mailed to you for FREE, send an e-mail to ifc-request@mLists.net and write "subscribe" in the body of the letter. Michael D. Burke is an active member on his own thread, Ask Michael Burke, here on SI. He provides the following commentary. Below is his write up. "I usually like to write about large themes and just mention a few stocks in passing. However, this time around I will comment on some stocks and industries and let the large themes appear where they may. We have recently seen a resurgence in technology stock prices. This resurgence is based upon horrible earnings (which were mostly "earned" with accounting tricks that fool the bubble-fed public and professional investors) and an even worse outlook for the future. The time seems ripe to look at which stocks may continue to prosper and which are simply part of the herd's instinct to throw money down a hole. I recommend buying stocks or long calls (a better idea in a toppy market, when options are available) on the positive issues and buying puts on the negative ones. I do not recommend straight short sales of stocks, as that strategy has a poor risk/reward tradeoff. Also, please note that these are theme-based recommendations and not trading tips. If you want short term recommendations, join me at the race track and I'll tell you which quarter horse is about to walk off with a quarter of my cash. 1. INTERNET STOCKS are one of the two broad areas of upside opportunity remaining in the technology sector. No, this is not investing. Heck, it isn't even speculating. These stocks are gambles. But, in a disciplined program of gambling, many of these stocks have the concept-based manic upside we gamblers love. Of course, the better-known leaders are all grossly overpriced and due for a collapse. We take care of that problem by buying puts on the American Stock Exchange Internet Index, the IIX. I do not know when total illusions like Yahoo, Amazon.Com, Excite or America OnLine will collapse, but we can expect a big bang when reality finally rears its ugly head. Just ask yourself, when was the last time you saw a good advertisement on Yahoo? Or, why do people pay a premium for mediocre service on America OnLine? And just how funky will AOL's accounting become before even starry-eyed bulls take notice? While you are at it, name all the book retailers in The Forbes 400.