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To: Thean who wrote (1118)7/16/1998 6:05:00 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 14427
 
Here we are just one day after "the bottom" is called by my new friend and I get blasted to kingdom-come on the other thread for trying to help their dumb asses out, and isn't it funny how the drillers all close below the open (or in some cases even.. just close DOWN) and to top it all off... DO drops a bombshell. mmmmmmmmm? Just what in the hell have I been saying for the last 3 weeks. Well, I'll say it AGAIN. I've talked to these people and there's more bad news to come. DO's comments are just the start. Estimates are still too high and they need to come down. I still think around Aug it will be time to buy (BUT I reserve the right to change my mind else someone post this 4 months from now when even though I changed my mind and never did buy, they'll say I'm an idiot for thinking Aug would be the bottom. I guess some people don't understand the way mkts change on a minute by minute basis and all we can do is speculate and then shift accordingly w/ what the mkt tells us), but the drillers have by no means bottomed. The last two up days were just a flag in the trend. I've had no inside info about earnings numbers, mind you.. just knowledge of what industry players are worried about and what they think they can do for earnings during the year. I've talked to people in 4 of the larger offshore guys and 1 of the land drillers... all of them said stay away for the time being. Speculation was that by mid to late Aug all the bad news might be in.

Every once in a while I get it right, but it certainly is alot easier when I have contacts in the companies. [ Wish I knew someone at DELL :( ]

-Lucretius