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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: up3up4 who wrote (29400)	7/16/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: .com	Respond to of 97611

Analysts optimistic about tech industry in 2nd half By Margaret Kane, ZDNet After months in the doldrums, there are signs -- however small -- that the PC industry will enjoy better times in the second half of 1998. But just how much an uptick remains unclear. Computer demand is still a long cry from the 20-plus percent annual growth rates of the early years of the decade. What's more, computer and software makers also contend with the fallout of the continuing economic turmoil in Asia. Indeed, Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) said Thursday that slumping Asian demand could reduce the company's annual growth rate by a full 3 percent. Still, many analysts -- and investors -- were heartened after digesting the first spate of major earnings reports from the high-tech market. What's more, they began to sense that there's reason to hope for even better results during the second half of the year. Well-recognized names in the computer business such as Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC), Apple Computer Inc. (Nasdaq:APPL), and Compaq Computer Corp. (NYSE:CPQ), all provided pleasant surprises for anxious industry watchers. And then there was Microsoft. The software company capped off a monster year by again besting analysts' estimates. Microsoft posted net income of $1.36 billion, or 50 cents per diluted share in its fiscal fourth quarter, compared with $1.06 billion or 40 cents per share a year earlier. The company's revenues climbed to $3.9 billion in the latest quarter, up 26 percent from $3.2 billion. Despite the sterling finish, Microsoft issued its perennial warning that future growth will slow. Indeed, as the company grows in size it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain its high revenue growth rates, which slowed to 28 percent in the year just ended from 57 percent in fiscal 1997. Still, the company continues to expect strong double-digit growth, fueled by across-the-board strength in its different categories. Perhaps a better bellwether for the future is Intel, which supplies the microprocessors to more than 80 percent of the computer industry. During a conference call to discuss the results, company officials offered a modestly upbeat appraisal. Although Intel does not expect to see a significant improvement in the third quarter, they said revenues in the second half of the year should top those in the first half. "I don't think the sector is slowing down. Every year the first half is weaker, and we're seeing the same thing this year," said Compaq Chief Financial Officer Earl Mason. "Fifteen percent growth [is a] good estimate for the market." Compaq certainly has reason to be happy. It finally got its inventory issues under control. In the last quarter, Compaq reduced its worldwide inventory levels to about 3.5 weeks. About a month ago, Soundview estimated that industry-wide, PC makers would eliminate about 2.5 weeks worth of inventory by the end of the year. Now it looks as if the companies have worked off the bulk of the excess product out of the channel. "If we're right and much of the inventory correction is behind us, it's likely that order rates will increase and pressure will be lifted," said Mark Specker, an analyst at Soundview Financial Group in San Francisco, Calif. "This takes an enormous amount of pressure off the component guys." Another positive sign from the component side of the industry came from drive-maker Seagate Technology Inc., which reported better than expected earnings for the quarter. Seagate, the largest drive-maker in the world, said that while prices for drives are still falling, it saw modest growth over the quarter. Even Apple, a company that as recently as last year was mocked as the Sick Man of the computer industry, sees better things on the horizon. Although analysts say the company still needs to spur top line growth, the company blew away Wall Street's estimates in the quarter. ''It was a great quarter,'' Steve Jobs, Apple's interim president and chief executive, declared. .

To: up3up4 who wrote (29400)	7/16/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: rhy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

that spike down yesterday went to 32 1/2. this nice, graceful bounce makes me nervous. the high day-before-yesterday was because a 700k sell was posted at 34 7/16. it went down sharply till closing right after that but jumped back up yesterday at the open to start that spike down. i've heard tell of an "oversold bounce" and since we all are trained to buy on dips, it came back almost as fast. if the big boys cleared their july 32.5 positions then we should go to 35. if not, they will make us pay for it. it seems like the july 35's would be more expensive than 1/8 if the sellers thought that we were really going that high. i saw a posting here where the author said that we were going up to 36 3/8 tomorrow. if that was the case, then cpqgg should be selling for (36 3/8 minus 35) or 1 3/8. its been flat since yesterday morning at the end of that downward spike. it's like the call sellers don't mind that they could lose 1 3/8 per share. what do you think? rhy