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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marion (Hijacked) who wrote (10661)	7/17/1998 2:13:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Respond to of 164684

Wow Marion...that's quite a revealing article. Thanks a bunch.

To: marion (Hijacked) who wrote (10661)	7/17/1998 4:54:00 AM
From: PblcSrvnt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Marion, Nice work! That is the quintessential example of the year of Amazon's shameless attempt to hype the company! How much are you and the author paid for such bull***t? How big is your cubicle? Now that you've posted, go back to work. These are my suspicions. There is absoulutely no factual evidence within my possesion at the moment to prove those suspicions. All stop! Perspective change...Below you will find...Simply an exercise in thought, one possible scenario in an evil, greedy, speculative blow-off phase of a manic bull market. I have no proof of any of this; it is personal speculation of a possible scenario--though I have made use of actual, publicly posted messages as examples of events that fit well in my imaginary scenario. Imagine you graduate from college, and enter the business world, some years later finding yourself managing a hedge fund... You were a bright kid who did well in school and you were unaware--during those college years--of the immense ignorance and psychic maleability of the average Joe; it all seemed rather easy for you, and the idea that someone else couldn't understand was just...foreign. But, alas, you are rudely awakened to the irrationality of the beast-the primal standard Joe that is known as the retail investor,and you shake your head at times, but you come to accept and acknowledge--as your continued existence as a hedge fund manager requires. You learn that almost any monetary appreciation of your position can be secured through proper techniques, and that almost any monetary appreciation can be achieved in a severly constricted and consciously controlled environment. You witness "fad" investing and its results...and you ponder... You strike upon the idea of a potentially saleable fad and you present the concept to the money changers you have come to know in your profession. Hmmm... The fad company is started with strict goals for potential tradeable shares, and with a core group of moneymen who are willing to commit financial resources sufficient to purchase all traded shares if need be. For a small float, we are talking, for example, teens of millions$ to control--to the 1/8--the price. As a hedgefund manager you have witnessed, firsthand, the extreme spectrum of investment ability, philosophy, knowledge, and savvy of Primal Joe Investor. You know that there are those who will buy regardless; those that will short without conscience. You decide to edge the IPO price of the Fad company up slowly by planting two "Posters" on a well known message board where there is known to be a diversity of opinion and intelligent debate. One of the posters, such as Clam Clam, initiates the short interest in the stock with an inflammatory opening condemnation of the new IPO. www2.techstocks.com The other poster, such as a Piero Filoti, initiates the bull position with praises of Amazon's ability to provide "Everything I want," while "they use great technology under it : Oracle Web server." www2.techstocks.com The bull-bear tug of war has begun. No need to keep Clam Clam and Piero around; good job fellas. Now the ignorance of the average investor can be counted on to perpetuate the conversation. But...not before Clam Clam converts--and oh what power there is in the born again believer: www2.techstocks.com Now we've got the best of environments for stock price appreciation; i.e., a thread of intelligent bears who are having a technical discussion--above Poor Joe Investor's head--about the realistic business prospects of the stock, thus building short interest, and a convert that is suddenly a believer, along with all the other Praising Pieros. Now we pump up the price a little to draw in the longs who see MicroAmazonsoft dead ahead. The shorts jump in with a conviction based on their analysis. Time for a price bump: buy to force to cover; it's fairly simple, there are weak shorts here. Longs take more interest, shorts take more interest, an occasional buy to force a cover perpetuates the cycle. After a while, the x-hedgefund manager is securing the incremental increases via options strategies--when the options begin to trade; who intitiates this? The cycle continues, regardless of the business prospects. Care is taken to be forthright about the business prospects in the 10K's so as to avoid any potential non-disclosure of pertinent facts legal repercussions--all the while, understanding Joe investors unfamiliarity and lack of interest in factual documents such as those file with the SEC..."The who?" The stock price conitinues to be elevated beyond all reasonable expectations--for those who know their business models--by convenient press releases of a "new" medium; not so well understood and differentiated by those unfamiliar. Soon, there is a fortuitous mistaken identity of "destination" for "vehicle," leading Average Joe to stay on the bus too "Long." Ruminate as you will. These are my ruminations. I accuse nobody of anything. If in the odd coincidence that there were a hint of truth to the above scenario, what would an x-hedgefund manager, as I am told Bezos, of Amazon.con is, do to hedge the losses of a stock position worth over two billion dollars. What signs would there be other than outright sale of stock? Thank you all for indulging my imaginative post. Imaginative responses to the hypothetical question I posed above would be of great interest to me, as I have a strong imagination and enjoy considering the worst of human intentions in this Americentric--What? people are starving in Asia--speculative bubble know as Wall Street. Lee