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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (21755)	7/17/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 94695

Gersh, I'm convinced that the problem is that we spend an incredible effort trying to out-fox Mr. Market and anticipate rather than just sit back react to the obvious. This past weekend I was trying to reduce my reading pile. In one of the magazines, the author presented a chart showing that the actual return for 1929 was over 50%. I'm now day/position trading and trying to have at least 30% of my resources in cash at the end of each day and still beat Mr. Market. Each night, before I retire, I see how I'm doing against the Index. Its tough to beat Mr. Index when its red-hot! As Jim has so well documented on this thread, just a few stocks determine the outcome. For July, Mr. Index is going along at an annualized rate of return of 169%. Wow! I stated to Lisa on another thread that it is clear, by whatever measure we attempt to use, that Mr. Market is over-valued. Guess What, Mr. Market does not care what our opinion of his/her/its value is. If you are in the Market in the first half of July, you achieved a little less than the amount a CD would pay you for the whole year. Go With The Flow! Berney

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (21755)	7/17/1998 9:16:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Gersh; I'm sure that off hours some CNBC commentators scan SI, as I've seen them duplicate some of my ideas, as if they were their own. This last week I noticed they started on the Nifty Fifty, and picked up my take on the Top 5 of the Nasdaq 100. While they focus on U.S. stocks more than others, and many of us think they are over valued ( which is true ) the real story since November of last year has been in Europe. Our market has not gone up to what the European market has. As for the over valued thingy..it has little to do with how the market does, mostly it's "cash flow". Follow the money, I think they are now catching onto that. Jim BTW the 30yr yield is getting close to the critical point for stocks, if the FED was to drain liquidity you would see a sharp down turn.