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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: umbro who wrote (10666)	7/17/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

AMZN options update 7/17 The 110 straddle would've made a couple of bucks today, though the odds of that happening were probably only about 20%. The implieds for AUG, OCT, JAN are 88%, 90%, and, 85% respectively. The implied vols. have been dropping steadily as AMZN edges (if you can call a +5% move that) up. There's a lot of put activity in the October options. The contrarian view of that is bullish. In any event the August options are reaching volatility levels that aren't too far away from Amazon's recent actual statistical vol., which suggests that they're not a terrible deal right now. The Aug 120 straddle costs 27.44, and has a breakeven at 92.38 and 147.25 at expiration. Given AMZN's ability to move, it's almost tempting to buy the straddle :) Options Forecast for: JUL put price: 118.53 OI = 13958 VOL = 3671 call price: 119.84 OI = 17848 VOL = 6302 consensus: 119.76 R = 0.8 R = 0.6 Options Forecast for: AUG put price: 99.09 OI = 7188 VOL = 2237 call price: 130.17 OI = 9298 VOL = 3344 consensus: 120.78 R = 0.8 R = 0.7 Options Forecast for: OCT put price: 91.82 OI = 1930 VOL = 552 call price: 131.14 OI = 5141 VOL = 43 consensus: 124.31 R = 0.4 R = 12.8 Options Forecast for: JAN put price: 86.59 OI = 1504 VOL = 133 call price: 143.26 OI = 2856 VOL = 113 consensus: 126.45 R = 0.5 R = 1.2 net long/short: 1.06 mil.