To: Alex who wrote (14573 ) 7/17/1998 5:20:00 PM From: goldsnow Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116764
Dollar Falls Vs Yen As Candidates For Japanese Premiership Hint At Reform Dollar Falls vs Yen as Japan Aspirants Hint at Reform (Update1) (Adds details on German reports at end. Updates rates.) New York, July 17 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the yen for a second day after the two leading candidates for Japan's prime minister suggested they would accelerate efforts to lift the economy out of recession, and after a report showed the U.S. trade deficit swelled to a record high. Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, favored to win, proposed tax cuts of 6 trillion yen ($43 billion), while Seiroku Kajiyama, a former cabinet secretary who supports closing weak banks, said the government's existing bank bail-out plan is incomplete and more reforms are needed. Both declared their candidacy today. ''People are more comfortable that the government has the guts to put in place the programs necessary to turn the economy around,'' said Alan Resnick, treasurer at Bausch & Lomb Inc., the Rochester, New York-based eye-care product maker. That's helping bolster the yen. In late New York trading, the dollar fell to 139.47 yen from 140.21 yesterday in New York. Earlier, if slumped to 138.63 yen. The dollar is down 1.4 percent versus the yen this week, though it's up 6.7 percent so far this year. The U.S. currency also fell to 1.7814 marks from 1.7878 marks, after a report showed Germany's trade surplus widened to a record, suggesting exports to Europe are offsetting a slump in Asia and pushing Germany's economy further along the road to recovery. The dollar declined 1.9 percent against the mark this week, and it's down 1 percent for the year. The yen gained as Obuchi and Kajiyama separately said the government has to spend more to spur economic growth, suspending a long-standing goal to slash the budget deficit. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party will choose one of them as prime minister next Friday. 'Optimistic' ''The market is optimistic that the new leader will push through aggressive, growth-minded reform,'' said Rebecca Patterson, a currency strategist at J.P. Morgan in London. Some traders are buying yen amid hope that Japan's new government will cut taxes, step up public spending and speed reform of the debt-strapped banking system. In the year ended March 31, the Japanese economy slid into its worst recession in more than half a century. That, and LDP losses in last week's parliamentary elections, prompted current Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to resign. The U.S. currency extended losses after a report showed the U.S. May trade deficit rose to its highest level since 1992, when the government began tracking monthly goods and services trade. ''The trade number was horrible for the dollar.'' said Hans Boman, chief currency trader at Swedbank. A growing trade deficit leaves more dollars in the hands of foreign exporters to sell for their own currencies when bringing revenue home. It also suggests that growth in the U.S. economy may slow in coming months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates any time soon. Higher lending rates would make dollar deposits and bonds more alluring. The trade deficit in goods and services swelled to a wider- than-expected $15.745 billion, the Commerce Department said. 'Torturous' Recovery To be sure, some investors remain skeptical that Japan's next head of government will be able to turn the economy around any time soon. ''I've got to wait and see,'' said Bob Murdock, who helps manage $1.2 billion at Analytic/TSA in Los Angeles. ''They've promised a lot of things down the years and they have yet to deliver on them.'' The dollar could rise as high as 160 yen by September as Japan's economy languishes, said J.P. Morgan's Patterson. ''Recovery will be a long and torturous process,'' said John McCarthy, manager of foreign exchange at ING Baring Capital Markets. ''Interest rates are at abysmally low levels and it hasn't helped at all that consumers aren't spending and businesses aren't investing.'' In a sign Japan is struggling to emerge from recession, a report this week showed industrial production fell in May from April, the fourth straight monthly decline. It also fell from the year-ago period, the seventh straight year-over-year drop. German Trade The mark got support from a report showing that Germany's trade surplus widened to a record 14.6 billion marks ($8.2 billion) in May. ''I like the mark versus the dollar,'' said Murdock, of Analytic/TSA, adding that he recently bought marks. ''The trade figures and other recent reports showed strength.'' The report should ease concern that the slump in Asian economies will crimp German growth this year, and should bolster the view that demand is accelerating within Europe. Only 8 percent of all German sales take place in Asia, including Japan. Still, the mark is likely to be held back amid expectations that German interest rates aren't headed higher any time soon. Swedbank's Boman bought dollars at 1.7875 marks today on expectations the dollar will gain. He also sold Swiss francs. A report from the Federal Statistics Office due next week is expected to show German import prices fell 0.1 percent in June, reinforcing the benign inflation outlook. Elsewhere, the British pound was little changed at $1.6461 from $1.6405 yesterday. The U.S. currency was little changed at 1.5027 Swiss francs from 1.5038 francs. It fell to 5.9730 French francs from 5.9880 francs and to 1756.50 Italian lire from 1761.50 lire. The dollar was little changed at 1.4882 Canadian dollars from 1.4881. bloomberg.com @@Fm60wQYACdgNMJ25/news2.cgi?T=news2_ft_topww.ht&s=555394232