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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (51836)	7/17/1998 11:57:00 AM
From: K. M. Strickler	Respond to of 176387

jhg, Checked JH post #51633 - all computer stocks referred to are 'canine', therefore referring to DELL as a 'dog' is not really derogatory. When (if) it crashes it won't be pretty, but even he said it is months off. Not too worry (NTW)! Cat - Like the CNPEG idea! Develop a scenario. Listened to meeting - went OK, had to drop to 'audio' only as 'video' kept stopping. Didn't announce split! Stock performing nicely! Regards, Ken

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (51836)	7/17/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 176387

Half truths are easy. Being a visionary is hard. Swimming with the school of fishes is easy, but knowing when to set your own course is much harder and much more rewarding when you're right. Substituting group think for your own thought processes is a prescription for disaster. So Michael Burke has no particular sway over my thinking. Market fads come and go. Who knows, maybe Hula Hoops will come back. But in the long run, the companies that have a consistent track record of solid earnings growth will prevail. Dell is one such company. TTFN, CTC

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (51836)	7/17/1998 3:04:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

In looking over Burke's comments, I thought they deserved closer scrutiny than I gave them in my last post. For those who haven't read them, here are Burke's comment regarding computer stocks: "Slow growth or no growth is the long term outlook for the canine COMPUTER STOCKS, though Dell (Dell) seems well-versed in New Paradigm accounting and may still be able to juggle the books well enough to report growing earnings. Borrowing money to repurchase the stock doesn't seem to ring any warning bells in the minds of the bulls on this stock, so I will hold off on the long puts for now. When this dog crashes, it will not be a pretty sight, but the big bang is not likely to pop over the next few months. Compaq (CPQ) is in deep kimshee and is using the DEC takeover to cover the full extent of its problems. Start a put buying program over $30 on this Alpo eater. Gateway (what's with this name change? Do they no longer think they'll make it to 2000? GTW) is also very adept at accounting sleight of hand, and the "You're Stupid Ware" program may transport their earnings reports to a new level of blue smoke and mirrors. However, I own puts on GTW, as it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the real world, as reflected nowhere in company statements, is tough right now and about to get much worse. But when we talk of accounting games, every other boxmaker is a piker compared to IBM (IBM). The sharp pencils and the snake charmer charisma of the CEO has caused this stock to rise again on is likely to be another awful eps report. I am about to reonstitute my put buying program and just hope that Lincoln was right and all the people cannot be fooled all the time. Hewlett-Packard is a terrific company, but a very overpriced stock. I don't own puts right now, but tempt me more every uptick. The problem is, the worse the earnings HWP reports, the higher its stock rises. If they ever reported a good quarter, the stock would probably tank, but there is little chance of that in this environment." This is one of the more nonsensical pieces of analysis you are likely to see. Look at Dell's and Compaq's historic unit growth, and compare that growth to industry wide unit growth. Now look at forecasted growth for the next year or so. Now, Mr Burke, care to tell us about no growth? Is this what you call analysis? How about his gratuitous statement about Dell "juggling the books"? How do you know, Mr Burke? What example have you to site? Or are you just juggling words to justify yourself? If there was manipulation of the data please be specific. I think the same comments should apply to GTW. If he compares Dell to a dog, (presumably a greyhound) I would compare his "analysis" to dog doo doo. They both seem to share a common odor. Shame on you Mr. Burke. You seem to be more attuned to dishing out hyperbole than sharing thought. Here's an example: "When this dog crashes [Dell], it will not be a pretty sight ...". Have you ever seen a pretty crash? Why precisely do you believe it will crash? You have also begged the question by assuming your conclusion, i.e. Dell will crash. Clearly, the data show that the performance of the box makers is heterogeneous. Compaq's difficulties are self-inflicted. IBM and HWP are both attempting to increase market share. But Dell business model allows it to keep rolling along in this environment, and is the only major box-maker to demonstrate that it knows what it's doing. TTFN, CTC