Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Stock Swap -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tech Master who wrote (14870)	7/17/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

AV--Thanks! I think we have the makings of a good plan. for this past week, you and I provided the combined 10%ers but it turned out that both performed anyway. And of course we have the also rans that also performed. The following has not been OCR corrected but is for general consumption for down the road. Price (As of 7/13) : $11 s/s Revenue (1998) : 137.7 Mil. Return On Equity (98): 8.7 % ProE. Syr EPS Grth: 30-0 % Shares Outstanding: 23El Mu. Dividend Yield: N/A Mkt Capitalization: 262.88 Mil. P/E 1998; 1999 227.6 X; 17.5 X Current Sook Value: $3.82 /sh Convertible: No Debt-to-Capital 0.0 % Disclosure(s): C, A * Advanced Energy held an analyst meeting at Semicon West. The company echoed others in highlighting the slow environment, but it also introduced a new product. * Visibility is poor in the semiconductor equipment part of Advanced Energy's business- But its customer no longer appear to have an excess inventory of power supplies. * The new Apex RF power supply offers better process repeatability and reliability than older models, in a smaller-sized package- it is for advanced ETCH and CVD applications. Highlights: Apex uses less complex design than prior generations of RF power supplies, and gives Advanced Energy a stronger competitive edge. The product should contribute to the company's gross profit margin. There are six customers alpha and beta site testing of the Apex. This work will extend from 2Q98-lQ99. The product is being used for advanced etch and HDPCVD (high-density plasma CVD) work. RF Power Products acquisition on schedule It should be completed by mid September. The amount of product over lap between RF Power and Advanced Energy is expected to be less than $2-$3 million. Importantly, the new Apex RF Power supply is complimentary to RF Power products offerings. Other business trends: Sales to flat panel display manufacturers remain weak. There has been some improvement in sales for computer data storage applications. Other storage applications, notably DVD and CDR remains strong. Finally, there is growth in power supplies for industrial applications that uses plasmas. As strong as some of the non-semiconductor segments are, however, they cannot offset the weakness in the semiconductor segment. Copper positioning: Advanced Energy is well positioned to provide power supplies for seed layer and barrier layer deposition. There may also be opportunities for the on copper electroplating equipment, which traditionally used simpler power supplies The Opportunity for Advanced Energy New customer accounts Novellus (NVLS - 33; rated 3) is a relatively new customer for Advanced Energy, and it holds good future growth potential. Higher share of existing accounts where Advanced Energy has traditionally done well in CVD and PVD applications at Applied Materials, (AMAT - 28 3/64; rated ) it is now addressing the lucrative Applied Etch business as well. RF Power Products -- The acquisition will fortify Advanced Energy's RF marketshare, and extend it into new industrial market segment that Advanced Energy did not address. Non-semiconductor markets - - We see strong long-term opportunity in both high growth existing markets, such as information storage on DVD disks, and in new markets yet to be discovered. Company IPO'd a few years ago and stalled out of the gate (IPO 10, stagerred to 11, crashed to 2.875 and then finally rose from the ashes to mid 30s). This is the stock behind my pen name. For those that got in at 10 and did not sell on the precipitous drop, they tripled their money. for those that bought on the way down, like me, and picked up shares as low as $3, we made a nice killing in the 20s and 30s, as we bailed and got less greedy. For those that followed me into this "sure thing" at IPO and bailed at 8, 6,5,4, I felt real bad that they did not have the faith and adopted the Andrew Vance moniker when I came on line here. "AnDrew VANCE" is my Scarlet Letter that I have decide not to shed. Back to the point. The stock is getting real close to being a steal of a deal again and will be a major turnaround when the industry gets healthier. First, it took out a competitor and second, it added some good solid companies to its stable of customers (NVLS and the Etch division of AMAT). At these prices it is well worth keeping an eye on for possible entry as the industry gets healthy. You could be looking at a good 100-200%er here. Everyone take a 3x5 index card and write AEIS on it and paste it to you monitors with today's price and with the following note: CONSIDER THIS WHEN THE EQUIPMENY SECTOR LOOKS LIKE IT IS TURNING AROUND. Consider it your electronic string around the finger.<GGG>